Seattle Public Schools today is expected to release a detailed plan for restructuring the cash-strapped district, including a highly anticipated list of schools that could be closed in the fall of 2006.

Superintendent Raj Manhas and his staff will present their preliminary recommendation at a School Board work session at 4 p.m. at the district's headquarters, 2445 Third Ave. S

Last winter, the staff suggested the district needed to close the equivalent of six to 15 of Seattle's 66 elementary schools and six or seven of the 18 middle-school buildings (which includes some K-8 schools) due to declining enrollment at some schools. Manhas will hold meetings at the schools recommended for closure before submitting a final recommendation to the board in mid-June. The board plans to vote on the recommendations on July 13. The last time Seattle closed a public school was 1989.

Like Portland, Minneapolis and other urban districts, Seattle has been discussing the possibility of consolidating schools because of weak enrollment growth; the failure of revenue to keep pace with operating costs; and lawmakers' demands for higher student performance on tests.

Earlier this year, Manhas' staff estimated the district would face a $12 million deficit in next year's budget just to maintain current services, and a $20 million deficit in two years.

As part of the district's restructuring, Manhas is expected to propose changes in how the district assigns students and transports them to schools.

The goal of the proposed overhaul is "to strengthen the quality of our schools," Manhas said in a recent interview. "It is not just a discussion of closing schools. It is, 'Are we as a system providing the best possible education in all parts of the city?' "

Supporters of Manhas' school-closure strategy say the district must take drastic measures to invest more money in teaching. Critics of school closures, including Seattle School Board member Dick Lilly, say the long-term damage to the city's neighborhoods would outweigh any perceived financial benefits.

Others fear the district could lose students if it closes schools. Board member Irene Stewart has said that the district lost 10 percent of its enrollment after it closed schools in 1989.

The board has been deeply divided over closing schools. Board President Brita Butler-Wall said in a recent interview that if any board members decide against closing schools, "the reasons would be very idiosyncratic."

The district staff has analyzed schools using many criteria, including the school-age population projected to live around each school by 2014, the school's popularity and the building's condition. Last month, board members refused to approve closure criteria because they said they wanted to see which schools would match the criteria.

Principal Barry Dorsey of Martin Luther King Jr. Elementary said yesterday his staff may activate a phone tree if the school is named at today's work session. The school is not a popular first choice among Central Area parents, and the neighborhood surrounding it is expected to see a nearly 20 percent decline in school-age children through 2014. Yet the school's fourth-graders have shown strong gains recently in reading and math.

"I think we've already dealt with the possibility that Martin Luther King could possibly close," Dorsey said. "We're past that."

At Rainier View Elementary, the Washington Assessment of Student Learning was on students' minds, not the possibility of school closures, said Principal Cathy Thompson. Third-, fourth- and fifth-graders got mentally psyched for the test yesterday with a kickoff breakfast of "WASL waffles," Thompson said.

The neighborhood around the school is expected to lose 33 percent of its school-age children by 2014, a projection which increases its vulnerability to closure.

"It's not that we don't care. We do," Thompson said. "We also know we have to keep educating these kids no matter what. And if we end up on the 'close' list [for fall 2006], then next year ends up being the best year we ever had."

Sanjay Bhatt: 206-464-3103 or sbhatt@seattletimes.com