Gregoire's post-convention slog

This is convention week in Denver and everyone who is anyone in Democratic politics wants to be in Sen. Barack Obama's orbit. Michelle Obama's air space works pretty well, too.

On Tuesday, Michelle Obama joined Washington Gov. Christine Gregoire and two other Democratic governors who were early to the Obama parade in a session with four women from across the country struggling in George Bush's America, including: a mother of five who lost her husband and can afford only catastrophic health care for the family; a single mom working two jobs, including one that goes all night, to pay for her children's education; another woman caring for an ailing sister with no help from anyone.

Gregoire is not shy about admitting this is an election for coattails, bike drafting, whatever you wish to call it. She is glomming onto the Obamas because she needs them like an apple needs gravity to fall from a tree.

The latest election results from last week's primary show a tightening contest — 2 points in the latest count. And because of the nutty fact that citizens can mail ballots as late as Election Day — our state is still counting ballots. The Pony Express was faster.

Before the primary, Gregoire sent out a political flier with one of those pictures worth a thousand words: A colorful visual of Gregoire and Obama arm-in-arm at a political rally last February as she endorsed Obama. Let's just say she was clinging to him more than he was clinging to her. The metaphor holds truer now.

In November, Obama is expected to win Washington state by 10 or 12 percentage points. Gregoire's race is much closer.

Gregoire bluntly admits she needs Obama to pump up the Democratic vote, especially in King County, where voters were so bored by last week's primary ballot fare many didn't bother to show up.

Gregoire leads Rossi by a commanding 60 percent to 35 percent in King County, but turnout was lower than projected by 10 to 11 percent — just 32 percent. In a normal primary, 45 or 46 percent of voters participate. They did in 2004. And they did in many other counties this go-round.

In other words, Gregoire's all-around best county had the lowest participation of all 39 counties in the primary. If November turnout rises to the projected 82 or 84 percent, that's different election calculus than the current 2-percent race.

As much as Gregoire needs Obama to help get out the vote, she said in a telephone interview from Denver, the relationship works two ways.

"He's the first to admit he needs partners in the states. He can't do this alone," she said. "This is a team sport. ... We've not had partners in the White House on education or health care. It's not something we can continue. We can't continue to pretend there is no health-care crisis."

Many experts believe it is not wise to read too much into the primary. The general election population is two-and-a-half times the size of the primary, meaning participation by a whole lot of different voters. That is certainly true. But still, there are a few indicators worth discussing.

The Rossi campaign analyzed returns and concluded he did better than expected, especially in Spokane and Clark counties, where Gregoire was leading election night. Both important counties turned toward Rossi as more votes came in.

Gregoire analyzed returns and deduced she did better than four years ago in the November general election in places such as Pierce and Snohomish counties. She lost those counties in 2004. (She does not count primary-to-primary results because County Executive Ron Sims was a significant presence in the 2004 primary.)

Any student of Washington elections knows few candidates win without taking or at least coming close in Pierce County. Gregoire beat Rossi there by a fraction of a point last week.

Snohomish County, almost as big and important, turned out better for Gregoire. She won more than half the precincts and was ahead by 2 percentage points.

Still, Rossi is right. The late-breaking returns trended toward him.

Gregoire is basking this week in the glory of the Democratic convention. When she comes back, she has a long, rocky road to translate that excitement into her own November victory.

Joni Balter's column appears regularly on editorial pages of The Times. Her e-mail address is jbalter@seattletimes.com; for a podcast Q&A with the author, go to www.seattletimes.com/edcetera