Iran: Oops, nevermind

The 2007 National Intelligence Estimate on Iran has the vague feeling of a bureaucratic revolt.

Or, at least, an obstinate show of resolve by professionals who had been rolled over once too often, as if they did not want their work used to justify dangerous hyperbole and disastrous acts. Again. Only weeks after President Bush invoked the specter of World War III to dramatize resistance to Iran's nuclear ambitions, he stood before reporters Tuesday to acknowledge his spies said the effort ended in 2003.

He looked as dazed and confused as most viewers felt about this odd and complete reversal. Drained of bluff and swagger, he labored to commend the agencies that unplugged his blustery foreign-policy gambit.

Did the intelligence community get it wrong on Iraq, or was it ignored? Critics of the Bush administration are deeply suspicious that information about Iraq, and now Iran, has been cherry-picked to make a political point. A fear persists that civilian hawks in the White House and Pentagon were not using reliable, multisourced information, and the so-called facts were not vetted by professionals.

Two years ago, the intelligence estimate assessed "with high confidence that Iran currently is determined to develop nuclear weapons ... " Now, the same 16 agencies "judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program."

This revelatory episode ought to ratchet back the bellicose rhetoric during the president's last year in office, and perhaps change the tone of the presidential campaign. Diplomacy, anyone?

The world is endangered by nuclear proliferation, and there is no good reason to take a wary eye off Iran. The work of spies is to judge intentions and measure capabilities.

The lesson learned is that international pressure works to change behavior. A unified front of allies to coax and cajole is a lot more effective than pounding on the table.