Big State budget: Betting on the economy

The two-year state budget proposed by Gov. Christine Gregoire is too high. It would leave the state with deficits increasing each year into the future. The Legislature needs to scale back her requests at least enough so that the deficits now projected by the Office of Financial Management go away.

Her operating budget, including the separate accounts, is a little more than $33 billion, or $5,240 for every man, woman and child in the state. It is almost entirely an add-on budget: There is only one cut in it — pension "gainsharing" for state employees — and it is a good one. Some of its big increases in spending include pay raises for teachers, home-care workers, day-care workers and state employees; health insurance for 34,000 more low-income (but non-poor) children; hiring 750 more math and science teachers and creating 8,300 new seats in college classrooms.

Much of this has our support. But a 12.2-percent increase in spending compared with a 7.7 percent expected growth in revenues is too much. It is unsustainable on its face.

Gregoire's first budget was also like that, and the state got lucky. Every 10 years or so, our economy enters a period of wonder in which all surprises are good. The economy bailed her out. But on Nov. 16, the state's revenue forecaster, Chang Mook Sohn, said tax collections are returning to normal. The governor is pressing her luck to bet against her forecaster two budgets in a row.

The Legislature needs to deny some of these requests.

Where to start? It could pay less than 88 percent of public-employee medical premiums — a benefit level far above the average in the private sector. It could reduce the 10-percent raise to child-care workers — a deal cut with a union. It could slow down the expansion of medical coverage to children whose parents are above the poverty line. It could slow down the reductions in school class size.

All these are big items.

There are many smaller ones that look less-than-urgent: $1.5 million to expand the reduced-price school-breakfast program; $5 million to subsidize health insurance at small, private employers; $5 million for rural Internet access; $200,000 to link entrepreneurs with wealthy investors; $9.8 million to promote tourism; $6 million to pay for retirees' drug co-pays under Medicare Part D; $5.8 million for community environmental organizations to do outreach; $4 million to help farmers turn crop waste into energy.

In good economic times, it remains doubly important to look to the future. This budget pushes endless deficits toward tomorrow. By 2013, the deficit could be $2.8 billion unless the state's budgeting system changes from spending to providing services within our means.