North Korea: dumb and dumber

The scary part about the odd, opaque behavior of North Korea and reports of its expected, alleged missile test is that irrational acts are open to irrational interpretation and manipulation.

No one can fathom the facile mind of Kim Jong Il in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, so everyone fills in the blanks and responds with bellicose language and arm-waving. North Korea — broke, hungry and isolated — apparently believes a periodic tantrum is necessary to attract attention and be taken seriously. The U.S. and North Korea are supposed to be in six-party talks but those talks broke off last fall. The U.S. wants a halt to any North Korean nuclear ambitions and pinched off international aid and financing. North Korea says to back off. So it goes.

U.S. and South Korean intelligence services eventually detected preparations for a test of a Taepodong-type missile, the first in eight years. The U.S. saw provocation and saber-rattling; South Koreans, who have to live next to a crazy neighbor, wanted to see anything but a test.

The South Korean press is full of stories based on briefings to the national legislators. Maybe the payload is a satellite. Maybe the refueling effort is a grand illusion, well short of the propellant needed for a successful launch. Remember the time North Korea fueled a missile, let it sit for 50 days and then canceled everything?

North Korea never wins with these tantrums. At best, it only silently annoys the Chinese, a neighbor and embarrassed friend. Russia is exasperated and the Japanese are sufficiently spooked to start rearming.

This episode may end like the rest, with a cathartic dose of attention-must-be-paid diplomacy. Former South Korean President Kim Dae-Jung had a trip scheduled to Pyongyang next week, but he canceled it. He was visited Monday by the U.S. ambassador to South Korea, who hopefully whispered a few calming words to be relayed up north.

At the same time, the U.S. is talking about using its anti-missile defense system against North Korea. Here is a threat fraught with political and technological peril. The system has been only marginally successful in scripted tests.

The United States has everything to gain by sitting down with North Korea and other interested parties for straight, forthright exchanges. North Korea risks compromising productive economic relationships with South Korea with these periodic tantrums.

Two South Korean presidents have looked with favor on nursing the North toward rationality. Dramatic outbursts can only lead to dangerous misinterpretations and strategic exploitations.