A full-stride economy in Washington state

It is time for a blunt truth about the health of Washington's economy: The recession was over two years ago, and now even the recovery is done. Our state's economy is healthy, vigorous and hitting full stride.

We can see it many ways, beginning with the number of construction cranes visible from downtown offices. In Sunday's Sports section was a little ad for Nucor Steel that said, "Help Wanted. Entry level production." The ad offered steel-mill jobs that average $25 an hour. Is it another boom? Chang Mook Sohn, the state government's economist, is a cautious man. He is not quite ready to unleash the B-word. But, he says, "The engine is cranking."

Unlike the 1990s, the upsurge is not led by dot-coms, though some are doing well and there has been some revival of venture capital. But this time around, much of the growth is from the traditional Washington economy:

• Aerospace. Boeing has a winner in the 787. Its eagerness to ramp up production without delay showed in its recent settlement with SPEEA, the engineers' union.

• International trade. Through October, the number of full containers moved through the Port of Seattle was up almost 29 percent from the year earlier, reversing a long period of doldrums on the docks. Asia is back, and has money to spend.

• The Alaska trade, run out of Tacoma and Seattle, is booming as the 49th state spends its oil inheritance and the industry punches more wells. Western Canada is also strong, particularly its petro-province, Alberta.

• Farming in Washington set an all-time record in 2004, and the conclusion of 2005 looks hopeful except for higher fuel and fertilizer costs.

• Housing and everything related to it have been stimulated by several years of low mortgage rates.

The surprises in state revenue are now on the up side. Four times this year, Sohn has revised his estimates of the state's biennial tax take, raising it by a cumulative $1.6 billion. Housing accounts for much of it, and that wave may be cresting. Other waves, however, are coming at us.

For the next few years, Washington should be having both the benefits and the problems of good times. Be ready.