More budget cuts loom for Washington state government

STATE government has been pounded the last two years. Since September 2007, every forecast of state revenues has been down. Last week's was down by nearly a quarter-billion, which means state spending will have to be cut even more.

Just a few months ago, our Democratic Legislature cobbled together a 2009-2011 budget from taxes, federal bailout money and state program cuts. It was skinny and painful in all sorts of ways, but it balanced. Based on the forecasts at the time, the state would end the two-year budget period on June 30, 2011, with $489 million in the bank — about 1.5 cents on every dollar of spending.

By the new forecast, the state will be $430 million in the hole. The state has some rainy-day-fund money, but not enough to cover that, and it has yet to add in the increased caseloads in social services. Also, beneficiaries of several programs have filed four lawsuits to block cuts already signed into law.

Said Budget Director Victor Moore: "We have reached a point where we have to consider eliminating discretionary programs in our supplemental budget."

This gives legislators several obvious choices next January. One is to let the governor make the cuts. Another is to suggest their own cuts — or, if they feel so inclined in an election year, to offer tax increases. Another is to wait for further revenue forecasts in the hope of getting a free wish from the economic luck genie.

Gov. Chris Gregoire had a taste of that kind of luck early in her first term, when revenues rolled in unexpectedly. It might happen again, but the state cannot bank on it.