Encouraging signs of an improving U.S. economy

SIGNS pointing to an economic recovery are far from conclusive, but are encouraging nonetheless.

One local sign was the report from the Washington Restaurant Association. The association's president, Anthony Anton, said Monday a majority of his members expect business to improve.

"The feeling is, 'All right, we can get through this,' " Anton said. That hasn't been the feeling among his members for the past eight months. The change is significant: Restaurants are a sensitive indicator of people's willingness to spend.

The percentage of people unemployed has not yet started down, but that typically is one of the last indicators to turn. Much earlier comes a turn in the number of people newly unemployed — and that corner was turned months ago.

Another indicator is stock prices. Now in the 9,000s, the Dow Jones industrial average is up 39 percent from its low of 6,547 on March 9. Stock prices are a measure of sentiment, but in business, sentiment counts.

Another indicator is home sales. Nationwide, they have been up for three months running — April, May and June — after deep lows set in January and February. House prices are down 12 percent nationwide, but with sales increasing, the drop in prices probably is near an end.

None of this means good times are back. The restaurateurs are not saying that. They are saying, "We can get through this." But that is the feeling at a turning point.

Such signs are particularly important for anyone planning to start or expand a business. Space is plentiful right now, and some of it is cheap. Money is plentiful and cheap, if your credit is good.

Most important, talent is plentiful. There is a big pool of people to choose from.

Of course, recovery is not obvious. By the time it is, the good deals will be gone.