The closed loop of Iranian politics

IRANIAN politics operate within a closed loop that begins and ends with a dozen clerics and Islamic scholars atop a theocratic government.

None of the candidates in the bitterly contested election appeared on the ballot without the council's approval. The massive rallies filling the streets of Tehran protest a vetted incumbent's use of fraud to rob a hand-picked challenger of the presidency.

The Guardian Council was directed by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to investigate allegations of election irregularities, but the expectations of a dramatic reversal are improbable. No change in direction is sought or desired.

Reformist candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi may not have been all that threatening to the religious hierarchy, but, as one analyst on the PBS "News Hour" noted, the clerics looked over his shoulder and saw who was behind him.

Seventy percent of the population in Iran is younger than 30. These young people have grown up with the limits and prescriptions of religious rule, but have no memory of how the passions were ignited. For young people in the cities, ordinary political frustrations abound. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has presided over a feeble, inflation-riddle economy and he trips and stumbles on the international stage.

However inept he appears to outsiders, Ahmadinejad gets credit for being a savvy player at home. For now, he is no threat to the interests within the loop of Iranian politics. The military is comfortable with him, and he is backed by parliamentary majorities.

Imagine that election fraud is found, and Ahmadinejad disappears from public life. One cannot imagine the politics and culture of Iran being liberated to any greater degree necessary than stabilizing the hold of those in power.

Supreme Leader Khamenei might find it awkward to retreat from his observation the election results were a "divine assessment."

Ahmadinejad's political career ends now or in the future, when the Guardian Council says so — not protesters, or most certainly, voters.