Danny O'Neil: Recent road to Super Bowl has been a wild one

And the last shall be first.

That has been the story of the NFL postseason in two of the past three years as the Steelers and the Giants parlayed a wild-card playoff berth into a Super Bowl title.

Each was one of the final two seeds in their respective conference, both won four consecutive postseason games, and together their titles signaled that this is an equal-opportunity era for championships. It's no longer just division winners that need to apply.

Only three wild-card teams had ever won a Super Bowl until the 2005 season, but now it's happened twice in three seasons. While that's not enough to constitute a trend, it certainly is trendy, and the NFL playoffs begin today with all four wild-card entrants favored to win on the road.

So which wild card is it going to be? The Colts and their nine-game winning streak, or the Ravens with their second-ranked defense and flotilla of running backs? Or maybe it will be Atlanta, or perhaps Philadelphia.

Recent history says at least one of those teams will still be playing two weeks from now when the conference champions will be crowned. Of the six teams to reach the conference championship games in the previous three seasons, three entered the playoffs as a wild card.

So which one will it be? Let's start with some historical guidelines.

1. Don't put too much stock in gaudy winning streaks.

The Colts have won nine in a row, the longest active streak in the NFL, which might translate to some nice parting gifts but doesn't guarantee much in terms of a Super Bowl appearance. In the previous four seasons, six teams entered the playoffs riding a winning streak of five games or more. None of them won the Super Bowl. Three of those streaks were 10 games or more (Patriots 2008, Chargers in 2006 and the Steelers in 2004).

Not since the Patriots in 2003 has the team that carried the longest winning streak into the playoffs gone on to win the Super Bowl. That was also the last season when a team seeded No. 1 in its conference won the Super Bowl.

2. The defense better be strong enough to stand its ground.

Defenses that function like a welcome mat don't just get walked over in the playoffs, they get trampled. One common trait for wild-card teams that made a deep playoff run is that they played stout against the run.

The Giants were the league's No. 8 rush defense last season, the Steelers No. 3 in 2005. Since the playoffs expanded to 12 teams in 1993, there have been five teams seeded No. 5 or No. 6 that have reached the conference championship game. Four of those teams ranked in the top 10 in run defense during the regular season, and the fifth ranked No. 12.

That's bad news for the Colts and the Falcons, who were 24th and 25th, respectively, in rushing yards allowed during the regular season. It's especially problematic for the Falcons because the rest of the NFC playoff field includes three of the top five rushing offenses in the NFL during the regular season.

3. Air on the side of caution.

The playoffs get called the ultimate test, but that's not exactly true. Teams don't have to pass. The Steelers ranked 24th in the NFL in passing yardage in 2005, while the Giants were 21st last season.

Prolific passing yardage in the regular season does not translate to Super Bowl success. Only one team this decade won the championship after ranking in the top six in passing yardage in the regular season. That was the Colts two seasons ago, when they were No. 2.

The Colts and Eagles opted for air travel during the regular season; Indianapolis ranked No. 5 in passing yardage, while Philadelphia was No. 6. Both ranked in the bottom half of the league in rushing yardage.

The wildest card

The ingredients of recent wild-card runs describe a team that isn't necessarily the hottest nor the flashiest in terms of offense. It is a team with a defense that doesn't give up yards on the ground and has an offense that doesn't rely on passing the ball to score points.

Hmmm, that sounds an awful lot like the Baltimore Ravens. They've got a rookie quarterback, but he's not put in positions where he has to pass because of Baltimore's combination of running backs and a defense that's stout enough up front to be confused with brick and mortar, while safety Ed Reed is a playmaker on par with Pittsburgh's Troy Polamalu.

Baltimore also has history on its side. The Ravens were a wild card when they won the Super Bowl after the 2000 season. Of course, that was when each conference was divided into three divisions and not four. The Ravens were seeded No. 4 in the playoffs that year.

This season Baltimore is seeded No. 5, making the Ravens one of the final two teams in the AFC field. Yet recent history has shown they could play their way to the front of the line when the championship is determined.

Danny O'Neil: 206-464-2364 or doneil@seattletimes.com