The best 12 teams won't be in the NFL postseason

When fathers tell their children that anything is possible, they now have proof: the Arizona Cardinals.

The team, which had not won a division title since 1975, has lost four of its last five games and hasn't beaten a team outside its own miserable division since October. Yet the Cardinals will be part of this postseason.

The NFL offers a lesson in perseverance, too. The San Diego Chargers were 4-8 just four weeks ago and now can make the postseason simply by beating Denver in tonight's regular-season finale.

The NFL offers promise and possibility for even the most seemingly hopeless causes, which is great for fathers preaching hope, and it certainly works to sell tickets. But is it the best way to organize playoff berths?

The NFL has taken a youth-soccer approach to its postseason, doing everything it can to make sure everyone gets a turn. The result is high on drama. Entering the final weekend of this season, only seven of the league's 12 playoff berths had been claimed. Eleven teams remained in contention for the final five berths. The problem is quality, because it doesn't necessarily mean the best 12 teams are going to end up in the playoffs.

There remains the very real possibility that Arizona and San Diego could each end up in the playoffs with a record of 8-8, while it's possible the New England Patriots could be left out even if they finish 11-5. Not only that, but the Patriots buried the Cardinals in a snowbank last Sunday, beating them 47-7 in New England.

Playoff formats are never entirely fair. In the NBA last season, the Warriors won 48 games and missed the Western Conference playoffs despite Golden State having more wins than all but three teams in the other conference.

But the possibility of rewarding mediocrity with a playoff berth is something NFL owners were willing to risk in the expansion from six to eight divisions in 2002. Two more division titles meant two more teams that can hand out division-championship hats and add accolades to its historical timeline. Two more divisions also increases the likelihood of having a division champ that's merely the best of an otherwise bad bunch of teams.

If the Cardinals' ears are burning right now, it's because Arizona is exactly the kind of team we're talking about. The Cardinals are 5-0 against the NFC West this season, 3-7 against everyone else. They're allowing 16 points to division opponents, and 32.5 against teams from outside the division. And they haven't won a game outside the division since beating Dallas on Oct. 12.

But the Cardinals had the good fortune of playing in a division in which St. Louis and San Francisco started so badly that they changed coaches in midstream, while Seattle was hit by a plague of injuries that was biblical in its severity.

Meanwhile, the NFC East doesn't have a single team with a losing record, and two AFC East teams already have 10 victories. Yet it's possible that each of those divisions will each have the same number of playoff entrants as the NFC West.

New England needs help just to reach the playoffs. The Patriots must not only beat Buffalo today, but either Baltimore or Miami must also lose.

So while college football spends the next week and a half mixing in bowl-game consumption with their gripes for a playoff format, it's good to remember that doesn't exactly eliminate all the inequity, either.

And of course, should the Patriots miss the playoffs despite winning 11 games, New England fans can wash down any sense of injustice with the three Super Bowls, two World Series and one NBA title won by Boston teams this decade alone.

So maybe it is only fair that a little bit of that postseason wealth gets spread around this NFL season when it appears anything truly is possible, even .500 teams getting into the postseason.

Danny O'Neil: 206-464-2364 or doneil@seattletimes.com