NFL Draft | It takes years to assess an NFL team's draft success

The mock drafts begin streaming out in March and turn to a flood by the time the NFL draft is held in late April.

The report cards won't be far behind, dutifully administered to each of the 32 NFL teams after the annual two-day talent buffet concludes Sunday.

Anticipation and evaluation, they are the two bookends of the draft, which has become the second-biggest event on the league's calendar, trumped only by the Super Bowl.

The attention dedicated to the draft is matched by its importance. It is the single-most influential factor in a team's ability to make itself into a perennial playoff contender. A botched pick can set a team back years while a late-round gem allows a team that chance to find players who are both cheaper and better.

It only figures that people will try to determine how a team did in the draft immediately after it's over. It also seems pretty straightforward that the best way to evaluate a player chosen in the NFL draft would be, you know, how well he plays NFL football. One problem with that: the pesky NFL schedule. It will be another four months before anyone chosen this weekend plays a meaningful game. This is exceedingly inconvenient for anyone hoping to assign a letter grade to a team's draft class less than 24 hours after it is picked.

So instead of waiting for the real-world results, draft picks will be evaluated based on whether a team picks a player earlier than he is expected to go — therefore "reaching" in draftnik speak — or selecting a player expected to be chosen earlier but who somehow stayed on the draft board, a "value" pick.

The results are draft evaluations that have very little to do with how the players picked end up panning out. A truly accurate measurement requires years. Three years, in fact. That's how long NFL executives say it takes to draw an accurate conclusion about a draft class.

Look back to 2005 when two middle linebackers were chosen three picks apart in the second round by Seattle and Cincinnati, a pair of teams with potent offenses looking for a cornerstone in their defense.

The Seahawks picked Lofa Tatupu No. 45 overall, the Bengals chose Odell Thurman No. 48. Well, Tatupu has been to three Pro Bowls in three seasons and the Seahawks have won four playoff games. Thurman was reinstated to the NFL on Monday after being suspended the past two seasons for violating the league's substance-abuse program. The Bengals haven't made the playoffs either year since he was suspended.

Two players chosen three spots apart to play the same position who demonstrate just how much sway a single draft choice has over a team's future. They're also examples of just how pointless it is to draw conclusions about a drafted player before he has really gotten around to the business of playing NFL football.

Tatupu was considered a few inches too short and a step too slow to be chosen that high. He was termed a reach by many. Thurman was considered a first-round talent but questions about his citizenship allowed him to slide into the second round.

Even halfway through the 2005 season, it was still tough to tell the difference. Thurman had 70 tackles his first eight games, four interceptions and was considered an early front-runner for NFL defensive rookie of the year.

Three years later, Seattle has a captain at middle linebacker where Cincinnati had a hole the past two seasons. It took time for the differences to emerge in those two players, and it's a good example of why the day after the draft is no time to draw any conclusions.

It takes years to make those evaluations. Remember that on Monday when anyone starts huffing and puffing about how each team fared.

Danny O'Neil: 206-464-2364 or doneil@seattletimes.com