Pac-10 Men's Preview | Star power is down, but few easy wins in this league

In terms of drops in value, it's nowhere near what has happened to your 401(k).

But in national perception, the strength of the Pac-10 is generally thought to have decreased significantly since last season.

As proof, most cite the fact that the conference has just a 1-9 record against teams ranked in the top 25, compared to 5-8 last season.

Conference coaches, usually the most avid lobbyists for the stoutness of the Pac-10, agree that the conference might not be as top-heavy as it was last season.

But they also say that observers need to look closer. While there may be no obvious Final Four candidate like UCLA last year, they say the middle of the conference could be deeper than expected, meaning from top to bottom, the league could be as competitive as ever. Conference play begins this weekend, and Washington and Washington State open up Saturday in Pullman.

"I think the league is better than people are saying or thinking," said WSU coach Tony Bennett. "Is it as powerful as last year? No. But last year's league was probably one of the best in the history of the Pac-10. We lost a lot of good players and the league might not be where it was last year. But I don't know that it is as far away as people think."

Indeed, the conference had a record seven first-round picks last year — including three of the first five players chosen — something that won't come close to being duplicated this year.

And some of the most touted players expected to take over, such as USC's DeMar DeRozan and UCLA's Jrue Holiday — have taken more time to find their bearings than did O.J. Mayo and Kevin Love last season.

Conversely, supposed bottom-feeders such as California (11-2) and Stanford (10-0, punctuated by a 45-point win this week over Texas Tech) are playing better than anticipated, leading to the feeling that there could be a lot more drama this season than last, when UCLA won the conference by three games.

"I think there are more clubs that are stepping it up that will make it even more competitive," said Washington coach Lorenzo Romar, adding that the margin between teams, particularly in the middle, could be as slim as ever.

"It'll be the teams that win the close games, the teams that can win on the road, the teams that can stay away from injuries," Romar said of what figures to separate the top from the bottom this year. "I think an injury or two could devastate a couple of teams in our league, maybe one injury. It's going to be a wild ride again in the Pac-10."

Where the perception could really matter, however, is in landing NCAA tournament berths. The conference received a record-tying six bids last season, including the first two Pac-10 at-large invites for teams that finished 9-9 (Oregon) or 8-10 (Arizona) in conference play.

Few expect that to happen this year, including Jerry Palm, who runs the Web site CollegeRPI.com.

"Six would probably be stretching things, but you never know," he said. "I wouldn't rule it out. But I would say a more likely range is four or five."

Right now, Palm says Stanford, Arizona State, UCLA and Cal "are all in pretty good shape" with each ranked from 21 to 45 in the RPI, an instrument that ranks teams in terms of perceived strength and is among factors considered by the NCAA selection committee.

Arizona, USC, Washington and Washington State — each ranked 54 or lower — "all need to do well in the conference to play themselves into consideration," Palm says. The two Oregon schools, he says, are basically out of it barring an unexpected run in Pac-10 play.

Washington has an RPI of 54 against what is rated as the third-toughest nonconference schedule in the Pac-10.

But Palm notes that the Huskies were 9-0 at home and 0-3 on the road or on neutral courts and says the Huskies "are what you'd call a home-court hero.

"They've got some decent wins [Cleveland State and Oklahoma State]. But they need to prove they can win away from home and they need to beat somebody besides the Oregon schools on the road," he said. "They have to put together a pretty good record in the Pac-10, you're looking at 11-7. If they can manage that, that would at least put them into the discussion. It would depend on what other teams do, as well, but 11-7 in the league is going to be looked at pretty favorably."

Palm says the Cougars, with an RPI of 117, have an even tougher road.

"They are in a little bit more of a predicament because they haven't done anything against anybody," he said. "And they've actually got a couple of home losses [to Gonzaga and Baylor]. The LSU loss [on the road last weekend] is particularly galling. That one may really end up coming back to haunt them because they [the Tigers] aren't even a top-100 RPI team [LSU is No. 108]. So they really have to play strong in the conference because they didn't make their case out of conference."

Bob Condotta: 206-515-5699 or bcondotta@seattletimes.com