Shoppers taking holiday-promotion sales, concern about lean inventories seriously this year

With her alarm clock set for 3:45 this morning, local mom Jill Dickinson is a testament to an especially strong turnout predicted for the day-after-Thanksgiving shopping bonanza.

Dickinson plans to arrive for a predawn opening at the Target store near Northgate Mall today to snap up discounted Lego sets before they're gone. It's a sharp switch from last year, when she slept in and spent the day ice skating near the Space Needle.

Her husband, a technology entrepreneur, has been out of a job since summer, and "we're hurting for money," she said. "I'm going to look for anything that's at least 50 percent off."

Retail experts expect crowded malls today — the official start to the holiday shopping season — as stores try to lure customers with big bargains in a still-struggling economy. About one-quarter of U.S. households said they'll shop today, with more than half of those planning to arrive in waves from 4 a.m. to 8 a.m. and again from 8 a.m. to noon, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers.

"Most people remember that the best deals on big-ticket items last year were on Black Friday," said Britt Beemer, a consumer analyst with America's Research Group in Orlando, Fla. Black Friday is a reference to when retailers did their accounting in red and black ink, and it's when many stores crossed over into profitability — i.e., went in the black — for the year.

"I think crowds in the morning will be incredible," Beemer said. "The question is, how many of those early-bird specials will stores have in stock. Walmart stores may only have 12, 13 or 14 of every TV set in stock, and they'll be gone in minutes. I think you'll also see more tempers flaring."

Retailers have pared back inventories after being stuck with too much merchandise at the end of last year's holiday season. Many had to use profit-eroding markdowns to clear out shelves in what has been called the worst holiday sales season since at least the 1960s.

Their inventories now are more in line with diminished demand, and while they hope to do a little better this season, they realize customers need to stretch their budgets amid rising joblessness and widespread economic uncertainty.

U.S. households expect to spend an average of $390 on Christmas gifts this year, down from an estimated $418 last year, according to a survey conducted by TNS for the New York-based Conference Board. The portion of households planning to spend less than $200 rose to 39 percent from 35 percent last year.

About a dozen or so large chains have been publicizing some or all of their Black Friday deals — once closely held secrets — in hopes of gaining an edge on competitors well before the actual event.

Toys R Us, for example, will give away a $50 gift card with the purchase of an iPod touch while supplies last. Shoppers who buy one cashmere sweater or scarf will receive another free at Banana Republic. And Kohl's will cut prices in half on its entire stock of Fisher-Price toys.

Some retailers also hope to attract shoppers by extending their hours. Walmart stayed open for 24 hours Thanksgiving. In downtown Seattle on Thursday, the Gap opened at 9 a.m., Banana Republic at 11 a.m. and Old Navy at noon. Toys R Us opened at midnight this morning, five hours earlier than in previous years.

"We're expecting some great traffic," said Ken Norcross, who oversees more than a dozen Old Navy stores in the Northwest. "As a value player, we feel we're well-positioned with the economy what it is. You can get two to three times more at an Old Navy store than at some of the fuller-price retailers."

The National Retail Federation predicts pent-up demand for bargains will mean crowded malls not only today, but also Saturday and Sunday. As many as 134 million people will shop during the three days, up from 128 million last year, according to the National Retail Federation.

NPD Group, a research firm based in Port Washington, N.Y., noted that many retailers began promoting "door-buster" bargains and other holiday deals a while ago, leading to what it calls the graying of Black Friday.

"We've now seen Black Friday turn into all of November," NPD analyst Marshal Cohen said. "They all want the consumer dollar as quickly as possible. If they can get you to start with them, they figure they've got a better shot."

Internet retailers also have been stepping up promotions to spur holiday sales. Seattle-based Amazon.com joined Walmart.com and Target.com in a price war last month over popular new hardcovers, selling books with a list price of $25 or more for about $9.

Online sales could be a bright spot for retailers with an eCommerce component. Forrester Research predicts that holiday sales on the Internet will increase 8 percent from last year — better than the 1 percent decline that the NRF projects for retailers overall.

Many consumers will shop online instead of in stores to look for deals and avoid crowded malls, said Eric Best, chief executive of Mercent, a Seattle software company that helps retailers sell online.

He said he expects Black Friday and Cyber Monday to be two of the year's top three days for online shopping, behind Monday, Dec. 14.

Shop.org, a division of the National Retail Federation, dubbed the Monday after Thanksgiving "Cyber Monday" because it's when many people return to work after the weekend and shop online at their desks.

Dickinson, the local mom who plans to hit Target for deals, said she has another strategy for stretching her budget this holiday season: She'll re-gift toy cars her 4-year-old son, Liam, received as birthday presents. She'll mix and match cars from various packages to make them look different.

"After seeing him play with two or three cars, I came up with this idea to create my own packages and put them under the tree," she said. "We're just trying to cut every cost we can."

Amy Martinez: 206-464-2923 or amartinez@seattletimes.com