Valentine's Day business tumbles 17%

Last year, Lisa Forst and her boyfriend spent $150 eating out on Valentine's Day. This year, they're cooking at home.

"We talked about it — no flowers, no gifts, nothing," said Forst, a 29-year-old director at a Los Angeles-based public-relations firm. "I don't want four courses and don't want to be forced to spend that much."

More people will probably cook at home, plan a picnic or take a walk on the beach today amid declining home values and the highest unemployment in 16 years, according to researcher IBISWorld.

Per-person spending will drop 17 percent as consumers buy less jewelry, candy and apparel, bringing overall spending to $14.7 billion this year, according to estimates by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and BIGresearch, a consumer-research group.

"Valentine's Day this year will be more about small tokens of affection rather than extravagant purchases," said Phil Rist, an executive vice president at BIGresearch.

FreshDirect, an online service that delivers groceries and meals in New York City, expects a surge in orders, said Chief Marketing Officer Steve Druckman.

"As the economy impacts everyone, giving customers an alternative to stay home and give them a high-quality restaurant menu really plays well for us," he said. "We're going to have a pretty brisk business for the holiday."

Valentine's Day may be the only major catalyst for retailers until Easter, according to estimates by the NRF, an industry trade group. Spending on that holiday totaled $14.4 billion last year.

Noha Raphael, a manager at women's clothing boutique High Energy in Manhattan, said in past years the store was busy without special offers.

This year, discounts of as much as 80 percent have failed to boost sales this week.

"It used to be crazy," Raphael said. "The store used to get crowded and that was at regular prices. If the business is going to be like this, it will be difficult."