Internet connections, 3-D screens underwhelm; OLED still years away

LAS VEGAS — To hear the buzz about new televisions at last week's Consumer Electronics Show, you may think your new flat-panel TV will soon be obsolete.

Who wants to be the last person in the neighborhood stuck with a plain old 52-inch 1080p set with only three HDMI inputs?

Especially now that thinner, brighter, greener 3-D models are just around the corner.

But after poking around the show and hearing a panel of experts discuss the future of displays on Friday, I can report that there's no urgent reason to upgrade.

Unless you've got a federal stimulus check burning a hole in your pocket later this year, when the gadgets that debuted at the CES start appearing on store shelves.

Still, for whatever reason, plenty of people will buy new TVs this year. Sales are expected to increase nearly 6 percent, to 35 million units, and account for the largest share of electronics sales, according to the Consumer Electronics Association (CEA), which hosts CES.

"We are the industry that will breathe life into the economy," CEA President Gary Shapiro pronounced on the show's opening day.

Shapiro said consumers are especially excited about new TVs that use less power, although it's a real stretch to say that buying more consumer electronics is good for the environment.

The biggest advance in TVs this year actually won't require a new set, and it may underwhelm consumers who take the plunge.

I'm talking about the proliferation of software and services designed for TVs connected to the Internet, including a new Yahoo software platform that a bunch of TV makers are adding to their sets.

When you call up these applications with a remote, they'll present online photos, news and video download services, just as desktop widgets work on current Windows and Mac computers.

Millions of people already have their TVs connected to the Web, using various add-on gadgets, game consoles or even Windows PCs.

But this year's CES was the turning point where all the major TV makers said they'll now produce sets that connect directly to home networks.

Even at bargain level

Even bargain manufacturer Vizio announced that it's putting Ethernet jacks into a line of TVs going on sale in the fall. A spokesman said the move probably won't increase the price at all.

Yet I'm not sure that consumers will be as excited as TV, software and advertising companies about this development.

Consumers haven't embraced Apple's gadget for connecting TVs to YouTube and iTunes. Six years after Microsoft added Media Center capabilities to Windows, only 10 million people a month are using the software to access entertainment content.

Could it be that despite all the exciting content on the Web, most consumers just don't want their televisions to become more like a PC?

Maybe they're happy having both a TV and a computer.

They're having a hard enough time navigating the transition to digital broadcasting and the moves cable companies are making to keep their grip on video content delivery.

Or perhaps consumers are holding back because they've figured out that bringing the Web to their TV will also bring Web-style targeted advertising and viewer-tracking tools to their primary entertainment system.

Lure of ad revenue

TV makers are following in the footsteps of PC companies, which realized years ago that they could make more money, and increase the apparent value of their systems, by selling screen real estate to companies pitching products.

This has reached a point where you have to spend hours, even days, clearing the virtual junk mail from a new PC. There's been enough backlash that some computer makers have agreed to sell decluttered systems.

But TV makers may find it hard to resist the potential of their screen real estate. Especially with sales slowing, consumers demanding lower prices and the ongoing pressure to invest in new display technology.

There are plenty of brokers encouraging this transformation of the television.

Consider the pitch of ActiveVideo Networks, a Silicon Valley company that demonstrated its software in a hotel room down the hall from mine at CES.

Among other things, its software offers to "combine the flexibility of Web measurement, targeting and formatting with the high-quality video and audience reach of television," according to its Web site.

Just what we've all been waiting for — even more probing ads on TV.

OLED on way slowly

Meanwhile the big, radical advances in TV hardware, such as the wafer-thin organic light-emitting diode (OLED) sets, are years away from becoming mainstream and affordable.

Companies won't be mass producing 32-inch OLED panels until about 2012, according to Peter Bocko, chief technology officer in Asia for Corning, which makes glass used in TVs.

"If you're watching technologies, it really does take some patience," he said during a panel discussion Friday on the future of display technology.

Bruce Tripido, vice president of LED-centric Sharp Electronics, said his company estimates it now costs $227 per diagonal inch to produce OLED displays.

But it sounds like OLED will be worth the wait. Not only is it thin and bright, the panels can also be used for lighting or even transparent windows that transform into video displays when they're powered up, Bocko said.

3-D TV coming this year

Mitsubishi, LG and other TV companies are starting to offer sets with 3-D capabilities for movies and games available later this year, according to Mitsubishi Vice President Frank DeMartin.

But the sets mostly require you to wear special glasses, and there's no consensus on which 3-D technology to use.

Movie studios are producing 3-D versions of their movies, and sports events will increasingly be available in 3-D, but it still feels like a novelty.

I also wonder if consumers are ready to upgrade to yet another enhanced viewing format, when they've been slow to replace DVDs with higher-definition (and higher-cost) Blu-ray discs.

Elsewhere, flexible, paperlike displays used in devices such as Amazon.com's Kindle reader are getting bigger and cheaper.

They'll soon be used for newspapers, magazines and college textbooks, but their color images are just approaching the resolution of a newspaper photo, according Sri Peruvemba, vice president of E Ink, the Cambridge, Mass., pioneer of the technology.

For all these advances, there's still plenty of life in LCD, Tripido said. Their lighting systems will get more energy-efficient, brighter and smaller, leading to thinner sets.

"The LCD TV technology that you see out there on the floor today is only about 50 percent into its evolution," he said.

"This kind of gives you an idea of the future possibilities."

Brier Dudley's column appears Mondays. Reach him at 206-515-5687 or bdudley@seattletimes.com.