Late change to tanker criteria could spark a protest, analysts say

As Boeing awaits news due at 2 p.m today of the Department of Defense's decision on the long-awaited air refueling tanker contract, a controversial late change to the Air Force's selection criteria has emerged that may provide grounds for a formal protest by the losing side.

Two analysts who have closely followed the tanker competition confirmed independently that the Air Force recently changed some of the criteria used to assess the performance of the competing planes, Boeing's 767 tanker and its rival based on the Airbus A330 proposed by Northrop Grumman and Airbus parent EADS.

Each expressed surprise that the Air Force, after going out of its way to appear painstakingly scrupulous and fair, made such a last-minute adjustment.

"What we have is an appearance of fairness issue. The rules of the game were changed after the game commenced," said aviation industry analyst Scott Hamilton. "This just really smells."

"It could very well attract the attention of Senator (John) McCain (R-Ariz), who went after the appearance of and the fact of unfairness in the first go-round," Hamilton said.

Loren Thompson, a defense analyst with the Lexington Institute, concurred: "When you have a close competition, any surprises, any deviation from what had been expected, becomes a bone of contention for the loser."

In 2001 Boeing was awarded the Air Force contract, but that was later canceled after a procurement scandal that followed close scrutiny of the deal by Sen. McCain.

Thompson said the criteria used to compare the competing planes in the current tanker competition had been changed late in the process.

The changed requirements were part of a computer model called the Integrated Fleet Air Refueling Assessment (IFARA) used to work out how the planes perform in sepcific war scenarios.

The change had the effect of "leveling of the scores for both planes with regard to certain performance features," Thompson said.

Leveling the value of certain features while maintaining them in others could give one side an advantage in a competition such as the tanker contract where the planes are very different in size and have very different capabilities.

Thompson said he was told authoritatively that "both of the proposed planes met all of the Pentagon's validated war-fighting requirements."

"They satisfied all the key performance features that were requested," said Thompson. "Therefore this was a fairly close competition."

Earlier this month, the Department of Defense Inspector General's office, the Pentagon's internal watchdog agency, said it would audit a previous defense contract award to Boeing — to build the Air Force Combat Search and Rescue Helicopter — after protests from competitors Sikorsky and Lockheed Martin over late changes made to the "key performance parameters."

An Air Force spokeswoman declined substantive comment today, saying that the Air Force Secretary "will talk through the criteria used in the selection" at the 2 p.m. press conference.

Dominic Gates: 206-464-2963 or dgates@seattletimes.com