UAW strike has makings of short one, analysts say

DETROIT — Unlike the United Auto Workers' strike in 1970 against General Motors, which lasted 69 days and helped push the nation into a recession, industry watchers predicted Tuesday the current walkout would be short.

Both sides have something the other desires — the workers want job security, GM wants to make retiree health care a union burden — and that's the stuff agreements are made of.

"The UAW and GM understand that a strike is a lose/lose proposition," Deutsche Bank analyst Rod Lache said Tuesday in a note to investors.

The two sides were back at the bargaining table Tuesday as workers walked picket lines for a second day. Talks restarted Tuesday morning after bargainers ended a marathon, 36-hour session Monday, GM spokesman Dan Flores said.

Analysts were encouraged that the talks have continued throughout the strike.

The 73,000 UAW-represented employees walked off their jobs Monday after the union said GM failed to make promises for future products and investment in U.S. plants. GM said it was disappointed and would work with the union to address its competitive challenges.

"I'm hoping we get a fair contract. I understand that General Motors has their back against a wall. But I don't want to give them everything," said Ernie Bruton, who was picketing Tuesday outside a GM engine plant in the Detroit suburb of Romulus.

The UAW's strike in 1970 rippled through the economy. Production declined, unemployment rose and retail auto sales dried up, according to an analysis by Merrill Lynch.

A 54-day strike against two GM plants in 1998 wreaked similar havoc and cost GM $2.2 billion.

This strike already is having an impact. On Tuesday, 3,000 workers were idled at GM's largest Canadian assembly plant in Oshawa, Ont., and GM was considering closing down a second Canadian plant.

GM's largest supplier, Delphi, said Tuesday it was temporarily laying off workers. Delphi spokesman Lindsey Williams wouldn't give numbers because the situation was in flux.

Delphi has about 25 U.S. plants that supply parts for GM.

Still, industry watchers predict the strike's impact will be minimal. Goldman Sachs analyst Robert Barry said if the UAW had planned a long strike, it would have struck one or two key plants instead of about 80 of GM's U.S. facilities.