Everyday indicators of the local economy

You don't have to be a professional forecaster to keep tabs on the local economy, and you don't need to spend hours poring over jobs and gross-domestic-product spreadsheets.

If you're more interested in a quick checkup than a detailed diagnosis, keep an eye on these "everyday indicators" as you go about your daily life:

Watch gasoline prices — as if you have a choice. Even though gas bounces around more than almost anything else we buy (and often for reasons that have little to do with the rest of the economy), high gas prices can eat away at consumer confidence and lead people to cut spending on other things.

Note the home-sale signs around your neighborhood. Are houses staying on the market longer? Are sellers lowering their asking prices or taking their houses off the market unsold? The more those occur, the deeper the housing downturn.

Check out how many "help wanted" signs you see , especially at fast-food joints, convenience stores and similar businesses. What kind of wages and benefits are they offering? Such employers rely heavily on entry-level workers; the stronger the overall job market, the harder it is for them to recruit and retain workers.

Look for U-Hauls and other moving trucks. New arrivals to the Seattle area have been a major prop to the local economy — filling jobs, helping generate more jobs and supporting housing values. But in-migration tends to be a lagging indicator. It picks up after it's clear the job market is healthy, and persists after job growth peaks. Do more people seem to be coming or going?

Check out activity at the Port of Seattle the next time you drive on the Alaskan Way Viaduct. The cheaper dollar should make U.S. exports more attractive; even excluding airplanes, Washington depends heavily on international trade.

Expect traffic jams on Highway 526, the main road from Interstate 5 to Boeing's Everett plant, during shift changes. Boeing has added thousands of jobs this year and is expected to keep hiring well into 2008.

Take note of when your office (or your neighborhood techno-geek) upgrades to Windows Vista. Microsoft hopes for a big 2007 from Vista, the latest version of Windows operating system. Eventually, nearly all the millions of Windows PCs in use will end up running Vista (or sitting unused in a closet). But how quickly the changeover occurs will have a lot to do with whether the Redmond giant has a super or just so-so year.

Also, will you get a new PC at your workplace along with Vista? Corporate America is flush with cash. Many economists hope companies boost their spending on plant and equipment — enough to pick up some of the slack from consumers, who may be spooked by falling home prices.

How crowded are the malls? The holiday season accounts for about a quarter of retailers' annual sales, and for many stores it means the difference between making or losing money for the year. A sluggish Christmas could be an early sign that consumers are worried about the job market or have realized they can no longer count on using their homes as piggy banks.

Even after the new year, take note of other shoppers and whether they are doing more looking than buying. Consumer spending makes up more than two-thirds of all U.S. economic activity. Even a small slip can mean billions in lost sales.

Look for more construction cranes, even though they can make driving in downtown Seattle and on the Eastside more of an obstacle course than usual. As homebuilding flattens out or dips, nonresidential construction should pick up some of the slack as a driver of job and sales growth.

Drew DeSilver: 206-464-3145 or ddesilver@seattletimes.com