Analysts cast doubt on rescheduled date for delivery of Vista

A leading technology-consulting company questioned Microsoft's ability to get a new version of Windows Vista out the door on its already delayed schedule.

"We don't expect broad availability of Windows Vista until at least [the second quarter of 2007]," Gartner analysts said in a report Monday.

A Microsoft spokeswoman said: "We respectfully disagree with Gartner's views around timing of the final delivery of Windows Vista. We remain on track ... to deliver the final product to volume license customers in November 2006 and to other businesses and consumers in January 2007."

Microsoft shares lost 28 cents, or 1.2 percent, to close at $24.01 Tuesday, a new 52-week low.

Vista, the first new version of the Windows operating system since XP was released in October 2001, has already been delayed. On March 21, Microsoft announced that the product would not be available to consumers for the 2006 holiday season.

Even if Microsoft were to push back its release date for a final version of Vista, analysts said it wouldn't hurt the company much.

"I think that once they missed the holiday season with the first slip, it's probably less important if they slip a little bit more," said Michael Cherry, a senior analyst at Directions on Microsoft.

Gartner's reasoning for the estimate, which it expressed with 80 percent probability, is based on the expected ship date of the second test version of Vista, known as Beta 2. It's due out this month or next.

With past operating systems comparable to Vista in complexity, Microsoft has needed as much as 16 months from Beta 2 to manufacturing.

Microsoft now has a five-month interval scheduled between Beta 2 and manufacturing for Vista.

"We believe more time is required between a stable, feature-complete Beta 2 and (manufacturing) to accommodate the issues expected during broad testing," Gartner analysts wrote.

Vista's performance when the Beta 2 is released will provide better insight into when a final version could be ready.

Directions analyst Cherry said testers will be looking for speed, stability and software compatibility in the operating system.

"If we see that ... then [Microsoft's] date seems much more reasonable," he said. "If we get that release and you still can't work on it day-to-day, then you'd be a little bit more pessimistic."

Benjamin J. Romano: 206-464-2149 or bromano@seattletimes.com