State's job market keeps sizzle

The roaring construction and aerospace industries helped Washington add 7,900 jobs last month, pushing the statewide unemployment rate back down to 4.6 percent.

That matched January's jobless rate, before an influx of new job-seekers bumped it up to 4.8 percent in February. The last time the state's jobless rate was this low was November 1999.

"Washington employers hired workers at a near-frantic pace in March," said Greg Weeks, director of the state Employment Security Department's work force-data branch. "A lot of industries were growing. This is a very hot labor market."

The state's jobless rate for March was below the national rate (4.7 percent) and the rate reported Monday by Oregon (5.5 percent).

John Mitchell, Northwest economist for U.S. Bancorp in Portland, noted that after months of being at or near the bottom of the employment heap during the recent recession, Washington and Oregon — along with Idaho — rank near the top in job creation.

Much of Washington's job growth was concentrated in the Puget Sound area. King County's jobless rate dropped to 4.2 percent from 4.5 percent in February; Snohomish County fell to 4.7 percent from 4.9 percent.

Though widely cited, the unemployment rate is at best an imperfect measure of the economy's health.

Each month, two separate federal surveys generate two sets of unemployment data. A survey of households determines the unemployment rate; that survey includes self-employed people and farmworkers but not discouraged workers and other people not considered part of the labor force.

A larger survey of employers includes only nonfarm wage and salary workers but shows which industries are driving growth. Many economists consider the nonfarm payroll numbers more reliable than the household results.

In addition, the household and payroll figures are adjusted to remove the effect of seasonal factors, such as holidays, weather patterns and school schedules.

Using the payroll figures, Washington had 3.3 percent more jobs in March than a year earlier — more than twice the year-over-year growth rate for the nation as a whole.

However, the Seattle metro area is still about 5,800 payroll jobs shy of its December 2000 peak.

The state's construction industry continued to hit above its weight. Construction accounts for less than 7 percent of the state's payroll jobs but generated more than a quarter of the new jobs added last month.

However, most observers expect high prices and rising interest rates will cool the nation's — and region's — housing boom.

On Tuesday, the U.S. Commerce Department reported new-home starts dropped 7.8 percent last month, the fourth decline in the past six months. Building permits also fell.

Freddie Mac, the federally chartered mortgage investor, predicts nationwide home sales this year will be about 7 percent below 2005.

Weeks, though, said he couldn't predict when Washington's housing market might slow down.

"We're all surprised by the persistence of the housing boom, and it actually is a boom in our state," Weeks said. "Interest rates have been rising for a while now, and the boom continues unabated."

Drew DeSilver: 206-464-3145 or ddesilver@seattletimes.com