Sodden January dampens some home sales, not prices

Those wondering if our real-estate market is tanking — the so-called bubble bursting — will have much to chew on with the latest home sales numbers: They show a Puget Sound area market that's slowing and speeding up.

King County's pending sales were down 6.22 percent in January compared with a year earlier, the Northwest Multiple Listing Service (MLS) reported Tuesday. Pending sales dipped 1.78 percent in Pierce County.

But in Snohomish County, pending sales rose 2.12 percent, and Kitsap County's climbed 6.32 percent.

Pending sales are the freshest possible data, reflecting offers buyers made and sellers accepted, noted J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate. Typically they are completed, or "close," a month or more later.

January's home prices show double-digit increases over the same month a year ago, the MLS reported.

It's not unusual for county sales numbers to bobble up and down, so interpreting what these short-term changes mean is akin to divining the meaning of monthly gas-price fluctuations.

It's the long-term trend that counts. And long term, the local market is expected to moderate but generally head up, Scott and others say, because of limited housing supply and increased demand fueled by job growth.

January's middling market may be a reflection of noneconomic events, the MLS said.

Last month was Seattle's third wettest on record, and its 11.65 inches of rain may have put a damper on house-hunting.

The Seahawks' climb to the NFC championship and Super Bowl XL also likely played a factor, Scott said.

"Now that we're through the worst of the weather and the Super Bowl has passed, February and March are expected to see a surge of buyers and subsequent sales," Scott said. "February and March are statistically the most productive months of the year on a daily basis."

Mike Skahen, owner and broker of Lake & Co. Real Estate in North Seattle, said his office continues to see houses getting multiple offers, and that is keeping prices up.

Interest rates under 7 percent also are fueling sales, he said, as is the health of the local economy. The Seattle area has added more than 57,000 jobs in the past year.

"In 30 years in real estate, I've never seen our [housing] market drop when the job market was increasing," Skahen said.

Added Scott: "The continued demand of first-time buyers coming into the market causes a chain reaction of sales up the price points leading all the way to sales above $1 million."

Meanwhile, the National Association of Realtors' chief economist, David Lereah, noted Tuesday that home sales are beginning to slow nationwide. But he still expects 2006 to be the third-strongest year on record.

"Sometimes people lose sight of the fact that real estate is cyclical," Lereah said in a statement.

Elizabeth Rhodes: erhodes@seattletimes.com