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Q&A: CES 2006

A wave of new products for 2006 and beyond were rolled out recently at this year's Consumer Electronics Show. Thousands of products were displayed at the gadget smorgasbord, held last week in Las Vegas.

The gadgets and devices, many of which are to go on sale this year, run the gamut from useful to wacky, sleek to befuddling, promising to ... whatever.

Seattle Times reporters Brier Dudley and Kim Peterson reported live from CES and were online earlier today to answer your questions about the future of technology and some of the gadgets and gizmos unveiled at this year's show.

Read their live dispatches from CES.

The transcript of today's discussion is below.

What is the neatest thing at CES?
— Zach, Redmond, Wash.

Brier Dudley: I think the neatest thing about CES is the sense of excitement. The trade show hums not just from the crowds and all the amplified noise and lights, but there's also a bunch of inventors unveiling products that could be used by a billion people. I also thought Yamaha's latest MusicCAST digital music server — with a 160 gigabyte hard drive and built-in wireless networking — was pretty neat.

Kim Peterson: There are a lot of "wow" things at CES, but for me, not a lot of "I must have that" things. One thing I'd love to get if I could afford it is the Philips television that turns into a mirror when off. We wrote about it here. But I have about a jillion cables connecting my TV to my TiVo, my receiver, my three gaming consoles and my DVD player, so I don't think the setup would look all that elegant.

I hear companies have some crazy marketing gimmicks at the event. What was the most outrageous thing you saw at this year's show?
— Robert, Seattle

B.D.: Onstage, it would have to be Robin Williams' routine with Google co-founder Larry Page. Overall it's hard to pick any one thing. Tall buildings are covered with temporary billboards, rock stars fly in to perform at cocktail parties, Lamborghinis are cut up to show off car stereos stuffed inside, people wait an hour for cabs to drive them a few miles down the Strip. But the most outrageous thing I saw was probably the prices that are charged for everything from water to hotel rooms during the show.

Do you think the OJO video phone marketed by Motorola will be a success?
— Bob Carroll, Seekonk, Mass.

B.D.: The OJO is a neat concept — a phone that does video calls, with a large color screen and camera built into the base. But the OJO has been out for awhile now and hasn't taken off.

I remember seeing them first at CES a year or two ago — Motorola sprinkled them around the trade show's press room. The biggest problem is that the phone is too expensive to become widely used — maybe that's why Costco is offering a $250 rebate. It normally sells for $900 for a two-pack.

OJO may also be eclipsed by the next generation of PCs, which will have more phone and video features.

Of all the products you saw at the convention, which do you think will enter the mainstream the quickest?
— Kelly Allen, Seattle

K.P.: Anything related to the iPod or which could present competition to the iPod will enter the mainstream the quickest. I predict this will be a key year for Apple's competition to finally get it together and present some really tantalizing products in the device market. There were some good music players on display at CES — some that can carry enormous amounts of music and video files — and those will be rushed out to market the fastest to try and chip away at the iPod's dominance.

B.D.: That's a very interesting question. I think the new phone systems, including phones to make free or low-cost calls over the Internet, will move the fastest because they are relatively cheap (under $200) and save people money on long-distance calls. Many of the video products are already going mainstream — digital television sales recently overtook sales of analog TVs, for instance. New video products such as the TV and video download services announced by Microsoft, Yahoo! and Google may take longer because they charge for content that consumers are used to getting for free.

Am I mistaken, or do high-tech companies put a lot of energy into making us think that they're run by cool, casual, egalitarian nice-guys (even as they're laying thousands off and paying antitrust settlements)? Which executive or CEO couldn't help coming off as the most imperial? I mean, who had the most impenetrable entourage, the most pageantry, etc.?
— Tennessee Peyer, Seattle

B.D.: Good question. Executives running tech companies definitely try to buff their image with crazy shows at CES. It's hard to gauge their true character during speeches. The speakers are more prepped and primped than the cocktail waitresses in the adjacent casino. The speeches generally don't address the concerns of their employees and consumers. They're primarily making blowout sales pitches to the retailers and distributors who will sell their stuff, and to the smaller companies they want to enlist as allies. The most surprising thing to you may be that hundreds of people line up for hours to see these shows in person.

The presentations all have a Broadway feel with flashing lights, celebrities and pulsing music. They all seem to follow a similar script that includes demonstrations of current and upcoming products, a progress report, a celebrity appearance, a video and a spiel about the company's broader strategy. One anomaly was Sony Chief Executive Howard Stringer starting his speech by apologizing for the recent snafu with spyware that was included with some Sony-BMG music discs as part of a copy-protection scheme. Google co-founder Larry Page lectured the audience on ways to better design consumer electronics products, then took questions from the audience, although questioners risked having comedian Robin Williams make fun of them.

Intel's Paul Otellini and Microsoft's Bill Gates didn't say much about their antitrust settlements, job cuts or outsourcing, but they were the only keynote speakers who posted transcripts and Web casts of their speeches at the CES site for the public to review. They're available here.

K.P.: Tennessee, I fully expected Sir Howard Stringer of Sony to be imperial. I mean, he's got a "Sir" in front of his name! But actually, in the post-speech Q & A he did with reporters Stringer was very jovial, casual and even funny. He spoke fairly candidly about Sony's organizational problems and seemed relaxed.

Google co-founder Larry Page did take questions, although normally Google's PR staff keeps Page far out of the public eye. I think Yahoo CEO Terry Semel seemed the hardest to relate to, because he gave a polished, professional speech with lots of celebrity pageantry but not much in the way of intimacy or friendliness.

What was the most interesting thing that you saw/heard? Any juicy, top-secret Microsoft stuff?
— Lynn, Tacoma, Wash.

B.D.: It was fascinating to watch the debut of Google at the show, especially in contrast with the presentations of consumer electronics barons like Microsoft and Sony. There was breathless anticipation of Google co-founder Larry Page's speech on Friday, but the products he announced didn't come close to the hype — he announced a video download service and a bundle of already-available free software. Page seemed nice, smart and earnest, and his speech was refreshingly candid, but he made his splash with personality and style rather than products.

I don't know if it was juicy, but one of the big Microsoft secrets was the contents of the McDonald's bag that Chairman Bill Gates was seen carrying into the show. (See the photo and story here.) Perhaps he was using the bag to hide a tiny Microsoft-branded PC, or a new challenger to the Apple iPod.

So what was the next big tech thing talked about at the convention? What can we expect to be spending big bucks on for Christmas 2006?
— beautyandageek, Seattle

B.D.: The consumer electronics industry expects you'll be buying more digital televisions in 2006, especially with flat panels getting cheaper and better. Then you'll have to replace your DVD player with a DVD recorder, perhaps one of the new Blu-ray or HD-DVD models coming mid-year that store 30 gigabytes to 50 gigabytes per disc.

You may also be shopping for a new Media Center PC or set-top box with a huge hard drive to record and display high-definition TV and movies.

K.P.: Maybe I'm just stuck in my little video gaming world, but I think you'll be spending big bucks on Sony's PlayStation 3 for Christmas. Curiously, that wasn't really talked about much at CES.

As far as the next big tech thing that was talked about, I'd agree with Brier. The companies there were really pushing new high-definition video formats that are coming out (HD-DVD and Blu-ray). Think high-tech DVDs that have more features and options.

Was there any talk about new software or whatever to control adware and viruses? Any new breakthroughs being worked on to control these pestilences on mankind?
— beautyandageek, Seattle

B.D.: There was little talk of security software products at the show — it was mostly hardware vendors — but Microsoft talked up its new operating system, Windows Vista, that is supposed to have improved security features.

Google also announced that it will distribute a trial version of Symantec's Norton antivirus software, as part of a bundle of software it's offering for download.

Stay tuned — there's a big computer security conference next month where the vendors are likely to talk about their new offerings and the state of malicious software.

I've attended CES for the last couple of years. Is it a coincidence that a pornography conventions coincides with CES each year?
— Avi, San Jose, Calif.

B.D.: It's not a coincidence. CES used to have some sleazy stuff on display, until the pornography convention sprouted up as its own event. The timing may help draw more geeks to CES, and it gives comedians lots of good material: lots of silicon on display at the convention, etc.

K.P.: I wonder how much revenue at the Adult Entertainment Expo comes from CES attendees. Anyone who wants to attend can pay something like a $50 "fan" fee. I stopped in at the expo to check it out (calm down, I was researching a story) and saw quite a few CES name badges in the crowd.

XM Radio seemed to bring it home at CES. Where did they come from and what is ahead?
— Dan, Seattle

K.P.: Bring it home? I think everyone is talking about XM's competitor, Sirius, because of Howard Stern's radio show, which debuted Monday. XM still has more listeners — 6 million to Sirius' 3 million — but Sirius has some serious momentum right now.

But XM showed off some interesting products, such as a portable device that can play MP3s and get live satellite radio. Samsung and Pioneer are making two of these players, and they're expected in stores sometime in the next three months.

B.D.: I'm still amazed that people pay for radio broadcasts, instead of paying to own music outright, but both XM and Sirius had a big presence.

Why is the public not allowed to attend CES?
— Julio, Seattle

K.P.: In concept it's supposed to be a business-to-business show where companies can come in and actually get things done. But the attendance this year was 150,000 — in two convention centers and at least two hotels — and I don't know how any business could get done in all that chaos.

As it was, it took a long time to trudge down the aisles because the place was just packed with people. Opening it up to the public would make it nearly impossible to handle.

B.D.: If you want to replicate the experience of CES, go to Best Buy on the day after Thanksgiving and stand next to the biggest, loudest display of televisions.

With plasmas obviously getting more hype than tubes, do you think the Dec. 31 date for going digital will be pushed back? If so, to when?
— Jerald, Renton, Wash.

B.D.: I don't know if there will be another change in the deadline, but the rules have flexibility, so it may take longer in some communities for broadcasts to switch completely to digital. The FCC rules say the deadline may be extended in communities where most people don't yet have the equipment to view digital broadcasts. Converter boxes for analog TVs will be made available, but you didn't hear much about them at CES. Most of the companies there would prefer that consumers just buy one of their new digital televisions.

People are still buying a lot of analog TVs, though, especially because their picture quality is good and their price is cheap compared with CD and plasma displays.

Is Apple the go-to stock this year, with their new ideas for the Powerbook?
— Frank, Seattle

B.D.: Apple was a go-to stock in 2005 and it's new Intel-powered laptops are nifty, but both are expensive. The laptops cost a fortune — one with a 15.4 inch screen starts at $1,999. Apple stock may or may not remain hot, but its laptops will never be as dominant as iPods if they cost three times as much as Windows machines. Most people won't pay top-dollar for cutting edge performance and style.

K.P.: Apple's quarterly numbers — out today — show some amazing momentum on the stock, finishing a great year for the company. Selling 14 million iPods in three months is impressive. As for 2006, well, I'm pretty bad at picking stock winners so I'll leave that to highly paid professionals. Or Miss Cleo.

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