CHICAGO — Delta Air Lines is readying deep fare cuts, a move that would make it more competitive against low-cost carriers and force rivals to match the reductions or risk losing passengers.

One analyst predicted that the strategy, coming during the post-holiday lull, could force at least one of the troubled airlines out of business.

Other airlines had no response yesterday to Delta's strategy. But analysts said they expect the bigger airlines to counter Delta with similar offerings.

"This is a revamping of the pricing structure to reflect competitive realities," Douglas Abbey, with the Velocity Group, a Washington, D.C.-based aviation consultant, said of Delta's move. "I give them kudos for this — this needs to be done."

Citing a policy against discussing fare changes until they take effect, a Delta spokeswoman declined to discuss specific plans for the reductions, which were disclosed this week by Time magazine.

Delta is the sixth-largest carrier at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport, with 1.4 million passengers from January through November 2004, according to Port of Seattle figures. (Alaska Airlines is No. 1, with 9.1 million passengers during that period.)

Atlanta-based Delta, which narrowly avoided bankruptcy last year, plans to lower prices on business class to last-minute ticket purchases, according to the magazine.

Delta's simplified pricing strategy includes plans to drop the fee for changing tickets from $100 to $50.

The airline will also eliminate financial penalties for passengers who don't stay over on a Saturday night, and reduce the disparity in prices for different classes of travel. The plan will reportedly not affect international travel.

The pricing strategy appears to be an outgrowth of an experimental program Delta tried last year in Cincinnati that was well received by travelers.

Fare wars are an elaborate game of keep-away, said John Pincavage, an airline analyst with Pincavage and Associates.

"If I can drop my fares before the other guy and capture the dollars that are going to be spent — or encourage more dollars to be spent — I get my proportionate share and help my cash flow," he said.

The move will also put pressure on other troubled airlines to match the cuts, pressure that could force at least one out of business, Pincavage said.

The large, so-called legacy airlines need a new pricing structure, said Tom Parsons, publisher of Bestfares.com.

Delta needs to set prices at a level high enough to make money, but low enough that customers aren't enticed to choose a low-cost carrier.

In many areas, the low-cost carrier is often not at the same airport Delta serves, but is flying out of a nearby market.

As a result, Delta doesn't need to match the fare of the low-cost carrier in every market. But the price has to be low enough to keep travelers from choosing to drive to an airport that is further away in search of a lower fare, Parsons said.

"If you can keep those fares $20 to $30 higher [than a competing low-cost carrier charges], I think you're going to see this become one of the best weapons the legacy airlines have to deter the low-cost airlines from growing as fast as they are," he said.

Delta experimented with across-the-board fare cuts in Cincinnati last year with a program called Simplifares. Simplifares resulted in some flights costing half of what they did before the program began. It also boosted Delta's bottom line.

In a speech in New York last month, Gerald Grinstein, chief executive, called the program "affordable and easy to understand.

"It also has received rave reviews from customers," Grinstein said. "Simplifares have provided a 30 percent boost in Cincinnati-based bookings and a 73 percent increase in reservations made through delta.com."

Delta, like other large carriers, has been cutting costs in an effort to return to profitability. The airline's bottom line last year was hurt by high labor costs and large increases in fuel prices.

Its prospects improved in October, when Delta's pilots agreed to $1 billion in salary reductions. But Delta ended the year on a rough note when Comair, its largest regional carrier, grounded about 75 percent of its fleet on Dec. 23 due to weather and computer problems.

Seattle Times news researcher Gene Balk contributed to this report.