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State jobless rate stuck despite pickup in work

By Blanca Torres
Seattle Times business reporter

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Jan-Paul Koren is one of those people. The 42-year-old tech worker keeps hearing the words "recovery" and "rebound," but he's not buying it.

He has spent the past three years doing contract work and temping after being laid off from a company that provided technology support for Microsoft.

"The numbers don't add up to me. I don't see us coming out of any recession," he said. "If we are, it's very slow, so slow it's nerve-wracking."

Economists have a different view. While month-to-month comparisons are flat, year-over-year analysis of the unemployment rate shows a huge drop from 2003's October rate of 7.5 percent. All numbers are seasonally adjusted.

"It's an economy that is finally turning around and showing a sign of life," said Paul Sommers, an economics professor at Seattle University.

Many of the new jobs were in construction and the leisure and hospitality industry.

Nationally, unemployment rose slightly to 5.5 percent in October from 5.4 percent in September. The Seattle-area's rate stayed put at 5.1 percent.

The state's 1.9-point drop in the past year reflects the creation of 61,000 jobs, said Seattle economist Roberta Pauer.

Another difference is the number of people working for themselves, which is higher than a year ago but down in October, she said. "People tend to turn to self-employment opportunities to earn a living as you recover from a recession."

Many self-employed workers re-enter the work force after a recession has ended, Pauer said.
 
October's job growth is a good sign the state will recoup by the end of this year the 81,400 jobs it lost during the recession that ended in June 2003.

Washington is only 4,900 jobs away from where it was at the end of 2000.

It's a different story in the Puget Sound region. The area is about 68,200 jobs away from pre-recession employment levels but may reach them by 2006.

"Recovery is going on, but we have a long, long way to go in metropolitan Seattle," Pauer said. "The rest of the state makes up for Seattle."

Most of the new positions were in leisure and hospitality (2,700) and construction (1,700).

But leisure and hospitality, much like temporary jobs, are not the kind that spur the economy, Pauer said.

"They're not jobs that have ripple effects through the economy in terms of creating jobs in other industries," she said.

"For example, the construction industry, not only does it pay people, but also purchases supplies from other businesses ... and also contracts with other businesses," Pauer said.

Manufacturing continues to decline except for aerospace. Boeing added 600 jobs last month on top of the 400 it hired in September. The plane maker is still not where it was a year ago but may get there, Sommers said.

"To finally be getting there is an important thing," he said. "It's a base of the economy we've depended on for many, many years."

Workers may not sense an improving job market because it's so different from the late 1990s, said Peter Brown, co-founder and director of technology for Headless Hunter, a job-matching Web site based in Seattle.

The site targets skilled labor positions in fields such as technology, bioscience, business management and architecture, which show substantial signs of growth, Brown said.

"As investment is increasing, there's a lot more hiring in high-tech industry and plans for huge biotech growth in Seattle," he said.

Koren, who has been a supplemental worker for IBM since August, said he has his first interview in more than two months lined up tomorrow. "Now, it's exceptional to get a call," he said, even though he applies for dozens of jobs.

Namgyal Tsedup, 29, of Seattle, is having a similar experience. He has five years of computer-technology experience but hasn't landed a job despite posting his résumé "all over" for the past three months.

As an immigrant from India, he knew it would be hard to find work in the United States, but hoped to find opportunities in Seattle's tech sector.

"I'm trying hard; one day I think I will get it," he said.

Even so, it's an employer's market. "Employers are being smarter with their money and smarter with their hires," Brown said.

"It's just a different attitude. They know they can't just throw money around the way they did before the 2000 bust, and it's absolutely critical to get the right people," he said.

Blanca Torres: 206-515-5066 or btorres@seattletimes.com