Weekly interest and loan rates | Home values Northwest stock contest 2004 | Consumer affairs

Job Market
Dismal science? Economists find forecasting fascinating

By Levi J. Long
Seattle Times staff reporter

ANNIE MARIE MUSSELMAN / SPECIAL TO THE SEATTLE TIMES Dick Conway, economist and co-publisher of The Puget Sound Economic Forecaster, says his work helps government and businesses plan for the future.

E-mail this article Print this article Search archive Most e-mailed articles

Related stories Meet our chief economist

Predicting the region's economy can be just as tough, if not tougher.

There are a lot of similarities between economists and meteorologists, says Dick Conway, an economic researcher and co-publisher of The Puget Sound Economic Forecaster, a regional newsletter.

"We both deal with unpredictable and complex factors ... and we can't always predict an accurate forecast."

Maybe not, but when economists speak these days, lots of folks listen — from presidential candidates to the underemployed and unemployed waiting for the economy's expansion to bring more good, new jobs.

Following Northwest trends

As a regional economist, Conway analyzes trends in labor and industry for businesses and governments in the Northwest.

His research and consulting firm, Dick Conway and Associates, counts Northwest utilities, other major companies and state agencies as clients while a co-owned company, Conway Pedersen Economics, publishes the newsletter.

"Much of the work I do helps businesses and governments plan for the future," he says.

For example, he might look at employment figures in a utility's service area and, using specialized statistical methods, project expected growth so the utility can calculate energy and employment needs, costs of proposed projects and expected revenue.

Employers seek analytic skills

Many more people study economics in college than become professional economists.

A bachelor's degree in economics can serve as a good background for careers in business, for example, with retailers, accounting firms, banks or insurance companies.

Analyze this Salary: $68,550 was the median annual wage in 2002. Corporate economists with advanced degrees might average $120,400. Skills: Ability to analyze statistics; good communication skills. Education: Minimum of a bachelor's degree in economics or finance; those with a master's degree or Ph.D. will have the best prospects. Senior-level economists typically have doctorates. Work locations: Colleges and universities, banks, investment and financial businesses, government agencies and research groups. Job growth: 10 to 20 percent through 2012. Most jobs will be in industry, including economic research and consulting firms. In 2002, 16,000 economists were working in the U.S.; many are near retirement. More info and job listings: • American Economic Association: www.aeaweb.org • National Association for Business Economics: www.nabe.com Bureau of Labor Statistics; U.S. Department of Labor, Occupational Outlook Handbook 2004-2005; salary.com.

Employers look for the kind of analytic skills developed in economics studies, says Neil Bruce, chairman of the University of Washington's economics department.

For those with a bachelor's degree who want to stay in the field, jobs might be found as research assistants with development, scientific-research, technology and consulting firms or with government agencies.

A competitive field

"It's a very competitive field," says Bruce. "I tell my students a (bachelor's) degree in economics only serves to get your foot in the door. There's no entitlement to a job with an (undergraduate) economics degree."

To be a forecaster or any kind of senior-level economist, whether at a university or in the private sector, graduate school is the way to go. Getting in isn't easy, though.

For example, UW's economics graduate program, ranked among the nation's top 20, gets more than 400 applicants each year. Fewer than 25 are selected.

Economics researcher Conway took a nontraditional path into the field.

He was recruited to play baseball at Stanford University during the late 1960s and decided to major in engineering and minor in economics.

After college, Conway joined the Peace Corps.

He taught algebra and trigonometry classes in a village in the West African country of Sierra Leone.

"That's where I really grew up," he says. There was nothing else to do there besides teach. "I spent four hours a day reading. I spent more time reading than ever before."

That included studying economics further.

After returning to Washington three years later, he earned an MBA from the UW.

More help for job seekers Our NWclassifieds job site provides additional Job Market content, as well as tools to help you land the position you want: · Job listings · Submit resume · E-mail alerts · Salary Center · Featured employers

"But I don't regret getting my degree in engineering. As an engineer, I was taught to think analytically. (Engineering) gave me the tools of math and logic to process information and helped prepare me for a career in economics," Conway says.

"That's why they call economics a science. It's similar to methods engineers and physicists follow."

But not exactly. Economics has to take into account human behavior.In physics, scientists can predict exactly how fast a dropped rock will travel using Newton's law.

"With rocks, you always know they'll hit the ground at the same time," Conway says.

Humans are more random.

"In economics, you can give ten people $10, and they'll all do something different. As a group, their behavior will almost always be predictable.

"But it's not a strict law; not everyone will be doing the same thing," Conway says.

And that, he says, is what makes his job harder but a lot more interesting.

Levi J. Long: 206-464-2061 or levilong@seattletimes.com

Copyright © 2004 The Seattle Times Company

E-mail this article

Print this article

Search archive

More business & technology headlines...