Weekly interest and loan rates | Northwest stock contest 2004 Technology scorecard | Consumer affairs | Home values

Stephen Dunphy / Times staff columnist
The Newsletter: What's coming in March

E-mail this article Print this article Search archive

The economy becomes increasingly political as the country marches toward the November general election with a fairly straight-forward equation: Good numbers are good for President Bush, while bad numbers favor his Democratic opponent.

March may seem far from November, but some reports have importance already. The jobless report Friday, for example, will be watched carefully. The number of jobs created over the next few months will be a frequent campaign topic.

The calendar for economic announcements actually is set far in advance; we know now when some key reports will come out this fall. For example, the initial report for third-quarter growth in the gross national product will be Oct. 29 — the Friday before the election.

So, here's a look at what's ahead in March:

\ Wednesday: The Federal Reserve's "beige book" report will look around the country and see how various regions are doing. It is an important tool for the Fed's meeting later in the month.

\ Friday: The jobs report. Most expect the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 5.6 percent, but the real attention will be on the payroll numbers. The forecasts are all over the map, from 45,000 to more than 200,000 new payroll positions.

 
\ March 10: Trade figures will show the trade deficit continues to mount. The total is expected to be about $41.6 billion for January, down only slightly from the $42.5 billion reported in December. The trade figures and the growing federal deficit are two of the big long-term worries for the economy.

\

March 11: Speaking of the federal deficit, there is a monthly report on the federal budget. The experts expect the deficit for February to be about $92.5 billion, down slightly from January's flow of red ink. The report is likely to grow in influence because the deficit should begin to shrink compared with a year earlier if the Bush administration is right about the country's ability to "grow itself" out of the debt.

\ March 12: Some signs of inflation creeping into the figures, especially on the energy side. The Producer Price Index, a look at prices one step removed from the consumer, probably is the better gauge of future inflation these days.

\ March 15: The Fed reports on industrial production and factory use. Both have shown modest gains in recent months.

\ March 16: The Fed's Open Market Committee meets to look at interest rates. The next Fed meeting is not until early May, so the committee may take this opportunity to push interest rates up slightly.

\ March 17: The Consumer Price Index is reported. Energy costs are driving this inflation measure, too.

\ March 24: A look at durable goods, stuff that is supposed to last more than three years. It was down last month, mostly because of weak orders in transportation — read Boeing.

\ March 24: New-home sales reported today and existing-home sales reported the next day will be studied for signs the housing market is beginning to soften.

\ March 30: Consumer confidence will be reported by the Conference Board, a New York-based business-research group. It was down in February, which surprised many economists.

Stephen H. Dunphy's columns appear Tuesdays-Fridays and Sundays. Phone: 206-464-2365. Fax: 206-382-8879. E-mail: sdunphy@seattletimes.com. More columns at www.seattletimes.com/columnists

Copyright © 2004 The Seattle Times Company