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Analysis
Major shifts seen in future work force

By Leigh Strope
The Associated Press

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Shifting demographics, advances in technology and increases in global trade are the strongest forces shaping the world of work, with big changes on the horizon for workers and employers, said the study by Rand Corp., a think tank based in Santa Monica, Calif.

"These trends have important implications for vital aspects of the future workplace and work force and for the U.S. economy," said Lynn Karoly, a Rand economist who led the study.

Separately, a survey released yesterday by the National Association for Business Economics found that 59 percent of the 32 corporate economists polled said employment was primed to accelerate, while 31 percent said the jobs market was "already improving substantially." Payrolls will expand by 1.1 percent during the year, adding an average of about 150,000 new jobs each month, according to the consensus forecast.

The economy added 112,000 jobs last month, fewer than economists forecast, as manufacturers shed positions for the 42nd straight month. Job growth, necessary to raise incomes and encourage spending, has averaged about 73,000 a month since September.

The survey was taken between Jan. 25 and Feb. 5.

U.S. workers should brace for continued global outsourcing of manufacturing jobs and high-skilled, white-collar service jobs — a touchy political issue this election year. Outsourcing refers to the loss of U.S. jobs to lower-paid employees at overseas companies.

Economists think globalization will continue to have "a favorable effect on income, prices, consumer choice, competition and innovation in the United States," the report said.

President Bush's top economic adviser landed in hot water last week for making that point. N. Gregory Mankiw backpeddled, saying his comments on the benefits of international trade were misinterpreted.

But the outsourcing of U.S. jobs overseas is a growing economic reality that, according to the study, will lead to unemployment and permanent wage losses for some workers. Trade also will continue to generate new jobs at home.

Expected job growth, however, will be concentrated in lower-paying industries such as retail, health and personal services.
 
"The prospects of continued or even accelerating job displacement" mean policies should be examined to help workers "adjust to these shocks," the study said.

Economists are concerned because future economic growth depends on an expanding labor force or worker productivity.

Employers faced with a tight job market will be forced to adjust compensation, benefits and work schedules to attract and keep employees — many of whom will be women and minorities, the study said. Older workers also may be enticed to work past retirement.

Technological advances will allow workers to be more mobile and to work in decentralized offices, allowing for increased telecommuting and flexible schedules.

Workers with fewer skills, however, will command much lower salaries and face competition nationally and globally.

Achievement scores of U.S. students have been only about average in comparison to other developed countries. U.S. adults rank near the middle on tests of skill measures on workplace literacy, the study said.

Material from Bloomberg News is used in this report.

Copyright © 2004 The Seattle Times Company