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What's wrong with this job picture? State, national forecasts don't match

By Suzanne Monson
Special to The Seattle Times

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Like the inconsistent images reflected in a fun-house mirror, the Puget Sound area's 2004 job picture isn't going to look much like national employment forecasts.

While employment experts in many other parts of the country say the number of jobs could plump up a bit this coming year, Seattle economist Roberta Pauer warns that nearly all work opportunities in King, Snohomish and Pierce counties will continue to appear lean.

"Employers are showing very few signs of permanent hiring," says Pauer, who works for the Washington state Employment Security Department. "The rest of the state is looking a little stronger, but the core Puget Sound area remains weak. The outlook for 2004 is for growth, but very slowly."

Such projections can be confusing for local workers who hear other, more-promising reports from other national sources.

"One set of economists is saying that a job boom is just over the horizon and another is forecasting that unemployment will average 6.4 percent in 2004," says John Challenger, chief executive officer of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, an international-outplacement firm that has been tracking job trends for years. "The disparity among various economic reports is just as vexing."

Jobs forecast this year in Puget Sound area Manufacturing: Down 23 percent from January 2001-November 2003. Overall manufacturing forecast: Ranges from negative to positive, depending on sector. Aerospace and related industries: Continued slight declines. Nondurable goods: Employment declines. Truck manufacturing: Slight gains. Electronics, instruments and industrial machinery: Modest to strong gains. Construction: Down 10 percent from January 2001-November 2003. Forecast: Slight employment gains. Wholesale/retail trade: Wholesale down 7.4 percent and retail down 6.7 percent from January 2001-November 2003. Forecast: Slight to modest gains. Transportation, warehousing and utilities: Down 14.4 percent from January 2001-November 2003. Forecast: Modest gains. Information: Down 9.4 percent from January 2001-November 2003. Forecast: Modest job gains. Exception: Software publishing — up 10.8 percent from January 2001-November 2003. Software publishing forecast: Strong gains. Finance/insurance/real estate: Up 2.5 percent from January 2001-November 2003. Forecast: Slight growth, despite downsizing in mortgage-refinancing institutions. Professional and business services: Down 12.4 percent from January 2001-November 2003. Forecast: Good gains overall. Exception: Computer systems design — down 39.4 percent from January 2001-November 2003. Exception: Legal services — up 4.4 percent from January 2001-November 2003. Leisure and hospitality: Down 4.1 percent from January 2001-November 2003. Forecast: Slight gains. Health services: Up 6.2 percent from January 2001-November 2003. Forecast: Continued good employment growth. Public and private education: Private education down 6 percent, public kindergarten-12 schools down 2.5 percent, public higher education up 6.3 percent from January 2001-November 2003. Forecast: No employment growth. Source: Washington state Employment Security Department

Even reports that direct workers toward the 10 "hottest" jobs or industries are misleading locally, says Pauer.

"We don't have any hot jobs in the Puget Sound area, and there aren't going to be any for a couple of years," she says.

Why is the local picture so distorted compared with the national scene?

"We are in a deeper trough," says Pauer. "Puget Sound has lost four times as many jobs as the national economy. We're down 8 percent; the nation is down only 2 percent."

Digging out for the Puget Sound region, she says, will take more time.

Washington's jobless rate for November 2003 — the most current available — was 6.5 percent, or 112,000 people out of work. That compares with 4.1 percent unemployment in November 2000, when 69,000 workers were out of a job.

In the past half-century, she says, only the Boeing bust of the 1970s caused a worse job loss.

Harder yet for locals, Pauer adds, is that "virtually all the job losses in the statewide recession have occurred in Puget Sound. The rest of the state has grown, except for pockets of layoffs in a few industries."

Which jobs have been the hardest hit?

Among the 105,000 Puget Sound-area jobs lost since January 2001, those out of manufacturing work are feeling the most pain. Some 43,000 manufacturing positions have been cut since early 2001; among those 23,000 were jobs at Boeing.

Construction jobs, also, took a hit with 8,500 fewer job opportunities in 2003 than almost three years ago.

The only bright spots, says Pauer, were jobs in "anything health-care-related. There was good, solid demand — but it was not a boom."

Health-services-related jobs went up by 6,800 in the Puget Sound area during that same period, says Pauer. "Even though health care is expanding more slowly than during the booming 1990s, I would still call it a growth field."

Overall, she says, 2004 "will feel only slightly better" for jobless people.

"There will be a little bit of job growth, but not enough for all the unemployed people in our current labor market. We're not going to recoup our 105,000 lost jobs until the middle of 2006 and the unemployment rate will not get back to normal until 2007 or beyond."

Why will recovery take so long?

"Every year — as we march through 2004, 2005 and into 2006 — we'll get more of those jobs back. But even then our unemployment will not be normal because we'll still be behind the eight-ball after six years of slow but steady population growth," says Pauer. "There will continue to be competition for every job opening."

What does that mean for local job seekers?

"If you're a job seeker, you have to have a strategy that goes out over several years," Pauer says. "You can't count on getting the job that matches your qualifications this coming year."

Her advice: Call 2004 the year of the textbook.

"Consider enrolling in the best training you can get into, even if you have to borrow money, which is what most of us did to get our education," Pauer says. "Meanwhile, take any job you can find to pay the bills.

"Another good strategy for 2004 is to take a low-level job in business or a field you're interested in, because most firms promote from within," Pauer says. "When the business expands, you'll be a known quantity, and you're the one who will get the promotion."

Copyright © 2004 The Seattle Times Company