College Football | Preseason predictors didn't see this coming

We interrupt the politicking from Big 12 coaches trying to carve out prime real estate in the BCS to shine a light on a bigger picture.

As in, how we got here. Or how we didn't.

It's hard to say if this year is any different from any other in how the landscape changes in college football in three months. But it's intriguing how many highly regarded teams in August are licking wounds in late November.

What all this seems to revolve around is the dreaded, two-word, catch-all capsule that drives a whole lot of expectations every season:

Returning starters.

It keys what's written in preseason magazines, it influences our perceptions mea culpa and, given the fact the early rankings eventually affect the BCS, it drives the game, at least for a couple of months.

Here's a look at 10 teams ranked among the preseason top 20 in AP, with returning starters in parentheses:

1. Georgia (17).

2. Ohio State (18).

8. West Virginia (17).

9. Clemson (17).

10. Auburn (17).

13. Wisconsin (17).

14. Kansas (15).

15. Arizona State (16).

18. Tennessee (16).

19. South Florida (20).

Today? The last eight listed are out of the top 25. Of those eight, only West Virginia is even getting Top 25 votes. Three of the 10 (Auburn, ASU, Tennessee) have losing records.

Georgia is 13th. Of the 10 on the list, only Ohio State (now 10th) and South Florida (7-4, but 2-4 in the Big East) are anywhere close to projections.

Guess we all should have done more homework beyond returning starters. For instance, the three offensive starters West Virginia lost are in the NFL, including running back Steve Slaton and fullback Owen Schmitt of the Seahawks.

Clemson was awash in talent but continued to have coaching issues. Auburn made a drastic offensive change to a spread-option and that doesn't always come easily (see Rich Rodriguez, Michigan). Arizona State was something of a creation of the schedule in 2007, and it turned on ASU in '08.

Naturally, injuries took an unforeseen toll on some of these teams. Georgia lost a couple of players early. South Florida's Jim Leavitt says, "We've had five knees and 16 ankles. It's just been beyond belief, one of those years."

Says West Virginia's first-year coach, Bill Stewart: "We tried to alert our fans and our team, that we weren't the eighth-best team in the country."

You have to watch those early preseason publications. They can really set the tone for the season, and in some cases, they can really set it the wrong way.

Flighty Fiesta

If Oregon State prevails Saturday in the Civil War and USC wins out, the Pac-10 office will be keeping a close eye on whom the Fiesta Bowl picks on Dec. 7.

The assumption is the SEC and Big 12 will supply the national-title-game teams. The Sugar Bowl and Fiesta Bowl would then have the top two choices of what's left.

After that, it's the Fiesta, Sugar and Orange, in order, so the Fiesta could have picks 1 and 3 after the title-game participants are decided.

The Pac-10 is wary of the Fiesta, which, despite being in Pac-10 territory, has never looked especially kindly on the league, overlooking a one-loss Oregon team in 2005 and 10-2 Arizona State in its own backyard last year.

There are some dark fears in the Pac-10, though it's probably unlikely, that the Fiesta would opt for Ohio State (10-2) over USC because Buckeyes faithful travel much better. That would be a real punch to the gut, with USC, currently 9-1, several spots higher in the BCS.

In any case, the Fiesta could have a sexy matchup like USC-Oklahoma, while it's the Sugar and Orange that are likely to be less than striking. The Sugar might be Alabama-Utah, leaving the Orange with perhaps Cincinnati against the winner of the watered-down ACC.

Hot Heisman race

Not only is the debate steaming in the Big 12 about who should play in the league title game, those teams hold the key to the Heisman Trophy race, with Oklahoma's Sam Bradford, Texas' Colt McCoy and Texas Tech's Graham Harrell doing the front-running.

Bradford, who has thrown for 42 touchdowns with six interceptions, would appear the leader, although McCoy won the head-to-head matchup. Not out of it is Florida's Tim Tebow, who gets to cast a vote as a former winner.

Think it has been a banner year in the Big 12? All finalists for the O'Brien (quarterbacks), Biletnikoff (wide receivers) and Mackey (tight ends) awards are Big 12 guys.

And what's more ...

• You might have missed the report of a nine-man committee at Rutgers that found the school did a lousy job with oversight of its fast push into big-time athletics, especially football, and criticized limited presidential leadership. The president? Richard L. McCormick, ex-prez at Washington.

• Last week, Minnesota coach Tim Brewster and players talked about how they were looking forward to their new outdoor stadium next year. Then they went out and played like it in their last game at the Metrodome, getting wasted by Iowa, 55-0, in one of the season's shocking results. The Gophers, 1-11 last year, lost their last four.

• No recession in Alabama, at least when it comes to Crimson Tide football. The school is close to starting a stadium expansion that would bump the capacity to 101,000.

• Mike Price's UTEP team lost a 42-37 heartbreaker to Houston and former WSU coaches Kevin Sumlin and Leon Burtnett to deny the Miners (5-6) a bowl bid. They have one last chance this week at East Carolina after blowing a 28-9 lead late in the third quarter at Houston.

• Speaking of Price, the move of Kansas State to rehire 69-year-old Bill Snyder is mindful of WSU's consideration last year to go back and get Price. From a distance, the Snyder hire looks sketchy, especially with the emergence of Missouri and Kansas in the Big 12 North. Then again, Snyder has succeeded in worse circumstances.

Bud Withers: 206-464-8281 or bwithers@seattletimes.com