The computers might be USC's toughest matchup

On the morning of Sept. 26, the streets of Corvallis, Ore., were littered with the detritus of Oregon State's boffo upset the night before: Cans, bottles and USC's road map for the national championship game Jan. 8 in Miami.

Just two weekends into October, we can revise that autopsy at least this much: Reports of the Trojans' demise were greatly exaggerated.

One of the season's ongoing story lines — except in our state, the Vladivostok of college football — is whether the Trojans, winning out, can crash the national-title game in a season when the Pac-10's profile approximates that of AIG.

Since that night at OSU, one assumption took hold: that USC would come up short in December against one-loss teams from the Big 12 or SEC. And that may well be true. But the Trojans, with a reputation for playing big in big games, and with more national cachet than anybody in this decade, might be the only team that could overcome that factor among voters.

Weeks from December, we're obviously talking pie in the sky here. But it's the computers, as coldhearted as Nurse Ratched, that the Trojans would have to overcome, especially when they still have Washington State (Saturday) and Washington to sully their schedule.

"There's a danger they could finish behind a one-loss Big 12 or SEC champion, who might impress the voters more in the end," BCS analyst Jerry Palm wrote in an e-mail. "That would likely be a better computer team as well."

Sunday, the first BCS rankings come out, which, among other things, will tell us there's a long way to go. Who's to say USC doesn't lose again and make all this moot?

USC coach Pete Carroll said this week he hasn't been surprised by the unbeaten balloons popping around him.

"I know it's really hard to win every game," he said. "From my perspective, everybody's going to get caught here somewhere."

Texas' Mack Brown, whose team played marvelously in upsetting Oklahoma, seems to be angling for that psychological edge, arguing for Alabama and saying, "We should not have jumped from 5 to 1."

A look at what's ahead in the second half for AP's top teams:

1. Texas (6-0): No wonder Brown is soft-pedaling. The Longhorns still have to host Missouri and Oklahoma State, and go to Texas Tech and Kansas. And then play, potentially, in the Big 12 title game. For a fresh round of BCS controversy, how about an undefeated Texas losing a close game for the Big 12 title and then dropping below No. 2?

2. Alabama (6-0): Not to diss 'Bama, which has played as impressively as anybody, but next time your Southern-fried cousin drawls on about the SEC, make sure he knows that the Crimson Tide's schedule included schizoid Clemson, which just fired its coach; Tulane and Western Kentucky; ho-hum Arkansas; and only one ranked team (LSU, on the road) among its last six.

3. Penn State (7-0): Joe Paterno may yet be hobbling up to accept a crystal football in January. The big one is next week at Ohio State.

4. Oklahoma (5-1): The schedule is manageable. Getting to the Big 12 title game will be the trick. Could this be one of those deals (Nebraska, 2001) in which it leapfrogs the conference-championship game into the big one?

5. Florida (5-1): Like USC, it was forgotten when it lost to Mississippi. We'll know more after a Kentucky-Georgia-Vanderbilt stretch starting next week.

6. USC (4-1): Throwing out the high and low computer rankings (with one of the six not yet reporting), USC's average is 5.3 this week.

7. Texas Tech (6-0): Starting next week, Tech has a Kansas-Texas-OK State-Oklahoma gauntlet. Get back to us around Thanksgiving, Red Raiders.

8. Oklahoma State (6-0): Cowboys are worth keeping an eye on. They've lost 10 straight to Texas, several in heartbreaking fashion, but get the Longhorns next week coming off games with Oklahoma and Missouri.

9. BYU (6-1): Loss to TCU Thursday night will end BCS bowl hopes.

10. Georgia (5-1): An LSU-Florida-Kentucky triad tells the story starting next week.

11. Missouri (5-1): Voters really whacked the Tigers, who were No. 3 a week ago, for a loss to an unbeaten Oklahoma State team. Saturday night's game at Texas reveals all you need to know.

12. Ohio State (5-1): No. No. Sorry, we're not going there.

His fill of Phil

Tennessee is 2-4 and its coach, Phil Fulmer, is in trouble. He's not getting a lot of help from iconic former Vols coach Johnny Majors, who in two recent media appearances in Alabama has claimed Fulmer backstabbed him to get the job in 1991. On a radio show, he called the addition of Fulmer to his staff "one of the main mistakes I made in my coaching career."

And what's more ...

• How big was Toledo's victory over Michigan, now 2-4? Never mind that it was the Wolverines' first loss to a Mid-American team in 25 games. It was the first time the schools, only 45 miles apart, had ever met.

• Pitt is 4-1, but it's not time to celebrate yet. In Dave Wannstedt's three previous seasons, the Panthers haven't beaten any of their next four opponents — Navy, Rutgers, Notre Dame and Louisville.

• It's fair to say Paterno has Bret Bielema's number. Last year, Penn State's 38-7 rout was Bielema's worst loss as a head coach at Wisconsin. State won, 48-7, last week.

• Kansas State coach Ron Prince might have been fudging just a little in his game-week take on Texas A&M, saying, "They're extraordinary." They're also 2-4 and looking like one of the worst Aggies teams in a long time.

• Missouri's astonishing streak of 48 straight possessions to start the season without a three-and-out? It ended on its second try against Oklahoma State.

• Auburn's Tommy Tuberville isn't taking his team's offensive woes lying down. After firing coordinator Tony Franklin this week, Tuberville, whose team plays West Virginia next Thursday, has elevated true freshman quarterback Barrett Trotter and might pull him from a redshirt season.

• Virginia Tech has made winning ugly an art form. The Hokies (5-1) are 108th nationally in total offense.

• With Tommy's firing at Clemson, all the Bowden sons are out of coaching. That leaves only papa Bobby of Florida State, who said wryly of Tommy, "I don't have to worry about him beating me no more, I know that, unless he gets his golf game a little bit sharper."

Bud Withers: 206-464-8281 or bwithers@seattletimes.com

Pac-10 picks

Oregon State 29, Washington 17: Outlook not great for UW stopping Jacquizz Rodgers

USC 46, WSU 3: Only Trojans' mercy will keep it this close

Arizona 30, California 24: 'Cats seem due for a big effort at home

Stanford 27, UCLA 19: Bruins don't seem capable of big numbers against Cardinal defense

Last week — 3-1. Season — 22-12.

Weighing in ...

A weekly snippet from one of the nation's fan message boards

From CUTigers.com, a Clemson site, on replacements for fired Tommy Bowden: "Lindsay Cowher, Bill Cowher's daughter, committed to Wofford today to play basketball. Now, I know it's just a kid going off to college, but does this put any more hope of us getting him to Clemson?"

Fact check

USC is only 4-4 in its past eight Pac-10 road games.

Just sayin'

Nate Ness, Arizona senior safety, to the Daily Star in Tucson: "We play not to lose, and the other teams play to win. We need to start playing the way Stanford played."

Bud Withers

Pac-10 power rankings