Economic ripples from a strike at Boeing?

Should the Machinists union vote today to strike Boeing for the fourth time in two decades, some of the region's highest-paid industrial workers likely would have to pinch pennies for the duration, and businesses that cater to aerospace workers might suffer.

If a two-thirds majority votes to strike, work will stop at midnight.

But, economists say, there likely will be minimal impact on the broader Puget Sound economy unless a strike drags on considerably longer than past disputes.

"When we've looked for an impact in the past, we haven't been able to find anything in the data," said Bret Bertolin, senior economic forecaster for the state Economic and Revenue Forecast Council. "I'm sure there is some [impact], but it's not enough to stand out from the noise."

Taxable retail-sales data from the state Revenue Department — perhaps the best gauge of Puget Sound-area consumer spending — showed no apparent change during and immediately after the 1989 and 2005 strikes, which lasted 48 and 28 days, respectively.

In 1995, when the Machinists struck for 69 days, there was a dip in local retail sales. Third-quarter sales were up just 2.8 percent, and fourth-quarter sales fell 0.5 percent.

However, that strike coincided with a brief slowdown in the state's economy, so it's unclear how much it contributed to the sales drop.

Nearly 1.9 million people work in the four-county Puget Sound area, local economist Dick Conway said, while the Machinists represent just 25,100 local Boeing workers.

Even if, as Conway estimates, each Boeing job generates spending that supports 1.7 other jobs in the local economy, that's a relative drop in the bucket. (By comparison, the Puget Sound region has added 24,700 jobs so far this year.)

Another consideration is that, with the Machinists' contract coming up every three years and strikes almost always a possibility, individuals and businesses can prepare — setting aside cash, paying down credit cards or scheduling vacation closures.

"It's such a regular thing," Conway said of the Boeing-Machinists clashes. "People know it's coming, and they can prepare for it."

Strike pay, which workers get from their union while on the picket lines, is minimal but serves as another buffer against spending cutbacks. Machinists would receive $150 a week starting the third week of a strike.

Boeing itself would be unlikely to curtail its spending much unless a strike dragged on, Conway said.

And after strikes are settled, he said, the company typically steps up production temporarily to make up for lost time, further limiting any broad impact.

Finally, all strikes end sooner or later, meaning they have less impact than would permanent layoffs.

"If everybody expects this to be a temporary phenomenon, nobody changes their behavior very much," Bertolin said.

Conway noted that before Boeing's latest hiring spree, it cut 19,400 Washington jobs between January 1999 and July 2000, and 27,200 more between October 2001 and June 2004.

"Now that's an impact," he said.

Drew DeSilver: 206-464-3145 or ddesilver@seattletimes.com