Oscar has issues: Best-picture nominees have serious political, social themes

We all know that Oscar doesn't particularly like to laugh. But apparently he doesn't like to get passionately engaged, either.

Some years, the Oscars are all tipped toward the entertainment end of movie-dom: Consider 1995, when "Braveheart" won over "Apollo 13," "Babe," "Il Postino" and "Sense and Sensibility." By stark contrast, there's this year, a rarity in which all five best-picture nominees are serious, smaller-scale films with weighty content — "issue movies," as it were.

"Brokeback Mountain" is a rare Hollywood film to depict a gay love story. "Crash" examines racism in contemporary Los Angeles. "Good Night, and Good Luck" takes us back to a fabled broadcaster's stance against Communist witch hunts. "Capote" shows us a family's murder, and a writer who nearly destroys himself in trying to capture of the story. "Munich" is a fact-based tale of murder, revenge and bitter politics. Popcorn, anyone?

If we look back at Oscar history, we see that this sort of film often loses out to something a little more audience-friendly. "Rocky" punched out "All the President's Men"; "Amadeus" prevailed over "The Killing Fields"; "Kramer vs. Kramer" beat "Apocalypse Now"; "Shakespeare in Love" won over "Saving Private Ryan"; and "Chicago" razzle-dazzled its way to victory over "The Pianist." This year, though, things will be different — there's no lighter film as a winning option.

But the Oscars are riding a bit of a trend. Last year's big winner, Clint Eastwood's "Million Dollar Baby," could be categorized as an issue movie: In its final act, its characters faced a wrenching decision that happens to be a major social issue of our time. But "Million Dollar Baby" was more than just its topic: It was Hilary Swank's brave Maggie, and Eastwood's wounded Frankie. It won, over the more lavish, jazzy "The Aviator." And yes, Eastwood's film made its audience think — but first, it swept them up into its world.

This year's slate is encouraging for exactly that reason — each of these "issue movies" uses artistry and emotion, in varying degrees, to cast a spell. "Brokeback Mountain" works its magic because of its performances and the beauty of the filmmaking — it didn't earn eight Oscar nominations because of what it's about (though that's intrinsically part of its power), but because of how it's about it. "Good Night, and Good Luck," "Capote" and "Munich," in very different ways, bring history to life through artistry. And "Crash" sent its message by engaging its audience in a way few films have done this year.

So, which among this quintet will win? Much has been made about "Brokeback Mountain" perhaps becoming the first gay-themed movie to win the top Oscar; whereas in fact it wouldn't be — the very different "Midnight Cowboy" was a surprise winner back in 1969, over "Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid."

But it's been a long time since a gay-themed movie was even nominated in the top category. "Kiss of the Spider Woman" made the list in 1985; "Philadelphia," though it received five nominations, didn't make the best-picture slate in 1993. More recently, "Boys Don't Cry" and "Gods and Monsters" received multiple nominations but not as best picture.

Likewise, the other candidates have few predecessors. "Capote" could, perhaps, be compared with "The Hours" in its creative depiction of a writer's demons — and it could, like "The Hours," be recognized only for a lead performance. The academy often rewards less-conventional films in acting categories, even if the films don't make the best-picture cut: William Hurt won best actor for playing a gay window dresser in "Kiss"; Tom Hanks won as a gay lawyer with AIDS in "Philadelphia"; Hilary Swank as a woman disguised as a boy and in love with another woman in "Boys Don't Cry."

"Brokeback" arrives tonight as a favorite, and if it wins all or most of its categories, history will have been made. But whatever name gets read at the end of the evening, it'll be a film that engaged people's minds along with their hearts — and that's a trend worth applauding.

Here's a look at what we might see in the major categories tonight:

Best picture

"Brokeback Mountain" has long been the front-runner and seems likely to win tonight. Much has been written about "Crash" crashing into the top prize, but I don't buy it — it seems like an attempt to inject a little controversy into what looks like an uneventful race. Lions Gate, which distributed "Crash," has spent a fortune on sending out thousands of screener copies, but that won't necessarily help it at the Oscars. (Academy members receive screener copies of all of the major films.)

The dark horse is "Good Night, and Good Luck," which could well have strong appeal to the many older Academy members who remember the era it depicts. "Capote," an impeccable film, is likely to get lost in the shuffle; "Munich" has little support.

Prediction: "Brokeback Mountain"

My vote: "Good Night, and Good Luck"

Wish you were here: "The Best of Youth"

Best director

Ang Lee has quietly amassed a career that's unlike any other director working today, with work ranging from martial-arts adventure ("Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon," for which he received his only previous nomination in this category), period drama ("Sense and Sensibility," "Ride with the Devil"), romantic comedy ("The Wedding Banquet"), popcorn fare ("The Hulk"), and now the heartbreaking "Brokeback Mountain." It seems unthinkable that the academy wouldn't choose him. The competition consists of three talented first-time nominees who have a few more dues to pay as directors — Bennett Miller ("Capote"), Paul Haggis ("Crash"), George Clooney ("Good Night, and Good Luck") — and frequently nominated veteran Steven Spielberg ("Munich"), whose year this isn't.

Prediction: Lee

My vote: Lee

Wish you were here: Fernando Meirelles, "The Constant Gardener"

Best actor

At the beginning of the awards season, this looked like a tight race between Philip Seymour Hoffman ("Capote") and Heath Ledger ("Brokeback Mountain"). But then Hoffman started racking up all the major pre-Oscar awards (the Golden Globe, the Screen Actors Guild, the British Academy of Film and Television Arts — and this category started looking less like a horse race and more like a shoo-in. Both performances, in any case, are stellar. Should the two front-runners cancel each other out, look to David Strathairn's meticulous, intelligent performance as Edward R. Murrow in "Good Night, and Good Luck" — or, less likely, Joaquin Phoenix's portrayal of Johnny Cash in "Walk the Line" or Terrence Howard's troubled pimp in "Hustle & Flow."

Prediction: Hoffman

My vote: Ledger

Wish you were here: Jeff Daniels, "The Squid and the Whale"

Best actress

Though only 29, Reese Witherspoon has been in the business for a long time, usually as the best thing about any film she's in. And in a year with few decent leading roles for women, her snappy, soulful work as June Carter in "Walk the Line" sparkles as brightly as ... well, as an Oscar statuette. Witherspoon's been winning most of the pre-Oscar awards and stands as a definite favorite. Her main competition: Felicity Huffman, brilliant in a film that few saw ("Transamerica"), and Judi Dench, delightful in "Mrs. Henderson Presents," though the role may be a little too similar to work she's done before. Charlize Theron ("North Country") and Keira Knightley ("Pride & Prejudice") can wear their pretty Oscar frocks and have a ball at the ceremony; basking in the near-certainty that they won't have to make an acceptance speech this year.

Prediction: Witherspoon

My vote: Witherspoon

Wish you were here: Natalie Press, "My Summer of Love"

Best supporting actor

This one could go any of a number of ways. Will George Clooney be recognized for "Syriana," as a consolation prize for the awards that "Good Night, and Good Luck" likely won't get? Likewise, will an award for Matt Dillon serve as a recognition of "Crash," or William Hurt for "A History of Violence"? Will a nod to Paul Giamatti for "Cinderella Man" attempt to make up for last year's snub, when he wasn't nominated for "Sideways"? Or will Jake Gyllenhaal win for "Brokeback Mountain," simply because he's really good in that movie and, what with "Proof" and "Jarhead," has had a hell of a year? Pre-Oscar awards have been split: Clooney won the Golden Globe, Gyllenhaal the BAFTA, Giamatti the SAG award. Flip a coin.

Prediction: Giamatti

My vote: Giamatti

Wish you were here: Alex Etel, "Millions"

Best supporting actress

Few performances this year had the emotional impact of Michelle Williams as a betrayed young wife in "Brokeback Mountain," and yet she's no longer a front-runner here. Rachel Weisz, vivid and sharp in "The Constant Gardener," has been winning a number of awards — and it takes nothing away from her fine performance to note that her film's lack of Oscar recognition may be a factor here as well. Catherine Keener, who had a fine year ("The Interpreter," "The 40-Year-Old Virgin" and "The Ballad of Jack and Rose," as well as "Capote"), could surprise. For the talented but little-known Amy Adams ("Junebug"), the honor's in the nomination; on the other end of the spectrum, Frances McDormand ("North Country") has won before and lacks momentum this year.

Prediction: Keener

My vote: a Williams/Adams tie

Wish you were here: Patricia Clarkson, "The Dying Gaul"

Other categories

In the screenplay categories, I'd place bets on "Brokeback Mountain" for adaptation, and a consolation-prize for "Good Night, and Good Luck" for original screenplay. "Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room" just might pull an upset over "March of the Penguins" in the documentary category, and "Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit" should win over a strong animated feature field.

For the rest — and, most important, for the dresses — tune in on Oscar night. Remember, movies come and go, but a bad Oscar dress lives forever.