Cross the King-Snohomish County line going north, and the new-home signs aren't hard to find.

There's Holly Hills Estates, where 73 new homes are available, and Brookhollow, with 21 homes going up. Add in Redwood Park, Highlands East, River Crossing and other emerging communities, and it becomes clear why Snohomish County continues to be a magnet for new-home buyers.

New single-family homes are available for as little as $220,000 up to half a million or so. Some are in neighborhoods offering parks, trails, sidewalks, underground wiring and other amenities.

Alternately, drive north from Edmonds along winding roads to Mukilteo and you get a different picture. Well-tended mid-20th-century houses cover hillside after hillside, offering panoramic Puget Sound views. The prices for them? Comparing cost per square foot, slightly more than a new house.

That's right. In Snohomish County, house buyers can find a lot of affordability, and they don't necessarily pay a premium to get into new construction — a surprise considering the escalating cost of the raw land these new houses occupy.

A Seattle Times computer analysis of recent Snohomish County Assessor's home-sales data for the south half of the county proves it's true.

Homes built from 1998 through 2002 cost $133 a square foot last year. But homes built before that fetched $137 a square foot.

The simplest explanation: It's all a case of supply and demand, says Glenn Crellin, director of the Center for Real Estate Research at Washington State University. New-home buyers do not tend to stay long, so relatively new homes are often available, Crellin has found. But once those buyers move up, and move up again, often selecting established communities like Edmonds' "Bowl," they tend to stay put.

"The view and the fact that they don't turn over makes them desirable," Crellin explains.

"Everybody wants the Bowl," confirms Windermere agent Turid Bouchoukian. This is the several-mile, bowl-shaped area from downtown Edmonds' waterfront up to the lip of the surrounding hill. The views are a big lure, as is the proximity to downtown Edmonds, a small-town charmer that's to Snohomish County what Kirkland is to King County.

Driving past one of the Bowl's few untended homes, a small 1920s house with a rotting roof and badly overgrown yard, Bouchoukian doubted it would go for less than $300,000 — not in an area where view homes quickly sell for half a million or more, just like in Kirkland.

But make no mistake about it, the two counties are not the same, as a comparison of last year's single-family home sales shows.

Here are some highlights, culled from assessors' sales records. (Note, however, that all of King County is included in these statistics, but only the more populous southern portion of Snohomish County.)

• While expensive homes are sprinkled throughout South Snohomish County, only 4 percent sold for $500,000 or more last year. Contrast this to King County's 12 percent.

• Last year 73 percent of Snohomish County's house sales were less than $300,000 — compared with King County's 58 percent. This explains why buyers hunting affordability head for Snohomish County.

• From 1999 to 2002, almost twice as many new single-family homes — 9,141 — were sold in King County as in its northern neighbor (up to Everett). However, new houses accounted for just 10 percent of King County sales, compared with 18 percent for Snohomish.

• That time period saw only moderate change in Snohomish's appreciation — from 5.6 percent in 2000 to 4.9 percent in 2002. This is on a per-square-foot basis, which is a more accurate measure of cost than sales price. By comparison, King's appreciation was much higher in 2000 — 8 percent — but fell to about the same as Snohomish last year: 5.1 percent, as the economic downturn caused regional cooling. Still, last year's Snohomish County sales made it a "balanced" market, equally favoring buyers and sellers.

• The most expensive area per square foot is Woodway/South Edmonds, but it's not the most expensive by sales price. That's North Bothell/North Creek, and it's not hard to see why. The latter community, located on the I-405 corridor, is newer and has larger homes, while Woodway/South Edmonds is older and has killer views.

Better deals north of Seattle

Longtime Snohomish County real-estate broker Joan Longstaff says relocation makes up a lot of her business, and many of her clients are King County residents seeking a better deal.

Indeed, Snohomish County properties are easier on the pocketbook for King County workers who choose to live north. While there are no recent statistics on how many people live to the north and work to the south, it's thought to be at least 40 percent of Snohomish County residents.

The payoff for that commute can be significant. According to Todd Britsch, of New Home Trends, a local real-estate information provider, Snohomish County's median income last year was an estimated $61,448, while King's was $74,485. That gives King County workers more buying power in a county where housing prices are cheaper.

Longstaff says they have a lot to choose from.

"If someone is looking for charming, older, we don't have much of that," she says. "But if they're looking at a planned community, there's Mill Creek or Harbor Pointe in Mukilteo. Both are golf communities.

"We have a few gated communities. Haines Point in Edmonds is one, and Edmonds itself is lots of different communities. Woodway has homes up into the millions. There's more newer construction in Lynnwood because there were more pieces of land."

The challenge is finding a single-family house for low-income, first-time buyers. In locating houses priced under $150,000, Longstaff says "there's nothing until you get to Marysville and Arlington, and then there are some decent things. The truth of the matter is, the only things that work for most first-time buyers are townhouses or condos."

But new-home buyers aren't deterred, reports veteran sales agent Ron Denney. He's John L. Scott's community sales manager for Sundquist Homes, which has several developments under construction. Denney has a handle on who buys the newly constructed homes dotted throughout much of the county's central core.

The first group are locals living within a few miles of the new community. Usually they're move-up buyers coming out of their first home, which may be a condominium.

The second "are people who are trying to escape Seattle to get more for their money — more land, more home, safer, quieter," says Denney. Many in this category are renters realizing that record-low interest rates will get them into a home for not much more than higher King County apartment rents.

The third group are older owners leaving very large homes on very large lots. "They come into a smaller home because it's usually too much of a shock to come directly into a condo or townhome," Denney says.

Most buyers select new homes in the $240,000-$280,000 range, he says.

While Marcia and Ken Black didn't buy a brand-new home, a six-week search throughout the county's western neighborhoods did land them exactly what they were looking for: a one-story retirement home they purchased last summer. Located on a quiet cul-de-sac in Harbor Pointe, it replaces the Yakima orchard home where they lived for almost 30 years.

For the Blacks, choosing Snohomish County was a no-brainer. Not only do they have family nearby, but the couple fell in love with the area. "It's just the perfect location for us," says Marcia Black. "For me, to be able to get vistas of the water and Mount Baker is just ideal. You couldn't ask for more."

Questions about the economy

The question buyers and sellers are asking now is how this year's market will perform now that Boeing has cut so many Snohomish County jobs and the region's economy is sagging.

The early answer is that home sales are being affected, says Denny Bullock, Prudential MacPherson's vice president of sales.

"Yes, it's slowed down, but it's real difficult to tag that as a Boeing problem. When you get to Woodinville you get to dot-com territory, and you can have a problem because of that," Bullock observes.

"We're seeing a small increase in the number of sales failing, and we suspect maybe lenders are asking some tough questions about employment."

Still, he and others say South Snohomish County is beginning to run low on buildable land, which eventually will put a brake on house construction. That means the area's homes will continue to appreciate.

As Longstaff points out, "I've seen runaway inflation from time to time, but I've never seen depreciation."

Elizabeth Rhodes: erhodes@seattletimes.com. Justin Mayo: jmayo@seattletimes.com