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Sunday, May 20, 2001

The big picture

Seattle Times staff

"We went through frenzy, through great, through good and now we're back to normal."

home market graphic While some sellers, aware their homes are languishing as ever more for-sale signs sprout, are wondering if the market has stalled, Lennox Scott has its true measure.

The real estate market, says the president of John L. Scott Real Estate, is normal, which means that after a winter lull homes are selling again.

But on a King County-wide basis, not the way they were last year or the year before, according to a Seattle Times computer analysis of single-family home-sales data from the King County Assessors Office. It tracks trends through the first quarter of this year.

Indeed, with the economy beginning a cooling last year, 1,210 fewer homes sold in 2000 than in 1999.

Gains in both median prices and price paid per square foot also slowed, to $249,602 and $148 a square foot, respectively. That reflected roughly an 8.5 percent increase in each.

But to put that in context, 2000 still experienced the third-highest percentage increase in both those figures (trailing only 1998 and 1999) in the past decade.

And when looking at price paid per square foot, virtually all communities appreciated last year. Madison Park topped the appreciation chart with a 26 percent increase in this category, compared to 1999.

Even those that showed the slowest gain - the 11 communities with appreciation between 3 and 5 percent - at least matched or slightly exceeded the rate of inflation.

An analysis of sales data for the first three months of this year shows the slowing trend continuing, but in a most telling way.

Sales countywide declined 24 percent, compared to the first quarter of last year, and the median price declined 2 percent. So does this mean that demand is drying up and the cost of housing is dropping?

Not so fast.

What buyers paid per square foot actually went up 6 percent - a clear indication that not only are homes not getting cheaper, but buyers are getting less for their money.

The disparity between median price and price per square foot can be explained by the changing dynamics of a market that's seen the sales of very expensive homes stall. Indeed, transactions involving homes priced at $1 million or more were down almost half in the first three months of this year, compared to the same time last year. And those selling for $750,000 to $1 million experienced a 31 percent drop.

Fewer high-priced sales impact median home prices more than they do per-square-foot price.

Statistics released last week by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service show April sales continuing the slowdown. Comparing last month to April a year ago, the number of King County homes for sale increased 29 percent while the number of sales actually declined slightly.

That sales, particularly of very expensive homes, are slow can be witnessed every Sunday as open-house signs multiply on Eastside corners. It was but a few years ago that million-dollar homes were a rarity.

The town of Sammamish has 67 homes on the market for $1 million or more. Bellevue has 136, Issaquah 21 and Mercer Island 91, according to a check last week of John L. Scott's Web site, which includes all properties listed through the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

At the same time, house prices in the more affordable areas are increasing - sometimes significantly - and business is excellent, says Mike Gain. His firm, Prudential Northwest Realty, specializes in West Seattle and South King County.

"The perception is that things have slowed down, but the reality for our company is that we just had the best four months, and I have the numbers to back it up," says Gain. "The market that's hotter than a pistol is anything under $300,000."

That pretty much describes White Center. Its homes posted one of the county's highest increases in per-square-foot prices for the first quarter of this year compared to the same period in 2000. That put it at $182 a square foot, an increase of 27 percent.

Compare that to Green Lake's median square-foot cost of $235. That sought-after North Seattle neighborhood enjoyed an 11 percent run-up in square-foot prices in the first quarter of 2001 over the same months last year.

An area that hasn't had the greatest reputation and thus has been something of a sleeper, White Center has been discovered by buyers priced out of more desirable Seattle neighborhoods, says Bill Reid of Prudential Northwest.

"It's one of the few neighborhoods close to downtown Seattle where you can get a decent home for $160,000 to $200,000," Reid explains.

"I think the biggest reason it's still affordable is that it had a large congregation of rentals and other houses that needed work. All these people are jumping in and becoming buyers because they can put down a couple of thousand dollars. Then they fix these places up and live in them, and that raises the quality of the neighborhood."

One of those buyers is Ray Pompon. The 1919 two-bedroom "grandma's house" - Reid's description - Pompon purchased in early March was on the market exactly one day. It received multiple offers.

The home is in the Highland Park neighborhood of White Center (according to the county assessor's boundary designation), in an area of similar Craftsman-style houses.

"I thought it was a real find," says Pompon, a computer-security expert who was both tiring of apartments and in need of a tax break.

"It's in a cute little neighborhood. It's quiet, the neighbors have been there most of their lives, and there's an off-leash dog park nearby."

Even more appealing is the easy access, which puts him in downtown Seattle in minutes. And it cost less than the $175,000 Pompon was willing to pay. Now when friends visit, they exclaim over his large, newer kitchen and tell him they're jealous.

Mike Grady, executive vice president of Coldwell Banker Bain, is fully aware that the first three months of this year signaled a further market cooling in King County. But he says that's not the same as an overall correction.

"Sales in Snohomish County for the first quarter increased 38 percent for units sold, while the number of sales in King reduced," Grady says. "So if you're just looking at King, you'd say, 'Wow! We're in a soft market.'

"The same is true in Pierce County. Sales were up 22 percent over last year. So if you look at the regional market, it's great."

And in fact, Grady expects the rest of the year to be pretty good in King County because the state has forecast a 1.7 percent increase in net new jobs.

The whole residential real-estate market "all starts with jobs. That's why I'm reasonably confident that 2001 will be a good year."

And good, rather than superheated, is just fine with Reid of Prudential, albeit homeowners may be disappointed that their appreciation isn't rocketing up.

"A house is still the best investment there is," Reid believes.

"It's not like the stock market. It won't evaporate 20 percent in a day; you won't get to the end of the year and have nothing. You'll always have the house."

Elizabeth Rhodes can be reached at 206-464-2306, or by e-mail at erhodes@seattletimes.com.

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